VIX is high as hell. Time decay is killing my ES calls.
Let's see how this week turns out.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
Monday, September 29, 2008
NLV $8300
Short VIX wiped out my account. Further crashes will be completely devastating. I think this might be it. I caught a black swan.
Saturday, September 27, 2008
What can $700 billions get you
Instead of propping up banks for $700 billions, we can maybe, buyout a country.
We can use $700 billions to buy out a country. Randomly assigning 10x GDP for political stable countries and 3-5x GDP for political unstable countries. $700 billions can be use to buy out countries with $70 billion GDP or less:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html
A lot of African countries and Caribbean Islands can be bought with $700 billions.
What else can we do with $700 billions:
We can establish 10-20 "Ivy League/Well-Established" universities each with endowment fund of $10-30 billions.
Give back taxpayers their money - each of us will get ~$2000 back.
Buy 5,000 F-22s Fighter Jets at $138 millions a piece.
Buy ~200 billions $3 Big Macs from Mickey Ds.
Buy 3.5 millions Ferrari F430s at $200k a piece. Or buy 3.5 millions houses at $200k a piece (avg house price).
Buy 2.8 billions Nintendo Wii - the world would be a happier place.
Pay back 8% of national debt.
Buy 7 billions barrel of oil at $100 a piece. At current consumption rate of ~9 million barrels a day, we can last two years.
Buy up JP Morgan, Citigroup and Bank of America and still have money left.
"Damn, I can't think of ways to spend $700 billions"
We can use $700 billions to buy out a country. Randomly assigning 10x GDP for political stable countries and 3-5x GDP for political unstable countries. $700 billions can be use to buy out countries with $70 billion GDP or less:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html
A lot of African countries and Caribbean Islands can be bought with $700 billions.
What else can we do with $700 billions:
We can establish 10-20 "Ivy League/Well-Established" universities each with endowment fund of $10-30 billions.
Give back taxpayers their money - each of us will get ~$2000 back.
Buy 5,000 F-22s Fighter Jets at $138 millions a piece.
Buy ~200 billions $3 Big Macs from Mickey Ds.
Buy 3.5 millions Ferrari F430s at $200k a piece. Or buy 3.5 millions houses at $200k a piece (avg house price).
Buy 2.8 billions Nintendo Wii - the world would be a happier place.
Pay back 8% of national debt.
Buy 7 billions barrel of oil at $100 a piece. At current consumption rate of ~9 million barrels a day, we can last two years.
Buy up JP Morgan, Citigroup and Bank of America and still have money left.
"Damn, I can't think of ways to spend $700 billions"
NLV $17600 Wachovia on the chopping block
Shorting VIX has its consequences. It soaked up all my buying power.
By trading in a deadbeat summer, I would like to remind myself the following:
1. Reduce position/stop trading during summer months- dog days of summer is for beaches, nothing good ever came out of trading in summertime.
2. Apple stock moves when there's a product announcement- earning announcement is a non-factor- unless they missed like RIMM did. RIMM on the other hand, is an earning play.
3. Trading the S&P500 is dangerous, I'll stick with the cubes (QQQQ).
4. Oil is still sh**, there is definitely more room to go- pure technical.
5. Market doesn't always trade on fundamental- this week we are trading on bailout plan- ignoring all the crappy econ numbers.
A word on Wachovia:
1. If the bailout plan come through, WB can jump a good 30-40% as they need to get rid of their mortgages ASAP.
2. If the bailout plan failed, don't look for any potential bidder, there won't be any. WB will likely get the shaft up their butt like WaMu did.
JPM paid $1.9 bil for WaMu, what exactly did he buy? Whatever it is, it was much cheaper than $7 bil he offered them couple months back. Only JPM buys bottoms, no one else can. Ask Ken Lewis at BoFA.
Jamie Dimon is definitely feeling "the Woo Hoo!" (www.wamu.com)
Analyst's trade of the day :
Short BAC, Long JPM
By trading in a deadbeat summer, I would like to remind myself the following:
1. Reduce position/stop trading during summer months- dog days of summer is for beaches, nothing good ever came out of trading in summertime.
2. Apple stock moves when there's a product announcement- earning announcement is a non-factor- unless they missed like RIMM did. RIMM on the other hand, is an earning play.
3. Trading the S&P500 is dangerous, I'll stick with the cubes (QQQQ).
4. Oil is still sh**, there is definitely more room to go- pure technical.
5. Market doesn't always trade on fundamental- this week we are trading on bailout plan- ignoring all the crappy econ numbers.
A word on Wachovia:
1. If the bailout plan come through, WB can jump a good 30-40% as they need to get rid of their mortgages ASAP.
2. If the bailout plan failed, don't look for any potential bidder, there won't be any. WB will likely get the shaft up their butt like WaMu did.
JPM paid $1.9 bil for WaMu, what exactly did he buy? Whatever it is, it was much cheaper than $7 bil he offered them couple months back. Only JPM buys bottoms, no one else can. Ask Ken Lewis at BoFA.
Jamie Dimon is definitely feeling "the Woo Hoo!" (www.wamu.com)
Analyst's trade of the day :
Short BAC, Long JPM
Friday, September 26, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $31,727.15
Just a quick update.
Got back from Vegas (and L.A.) and AC a few days ago. Started playing craps and it is SOOO fun!
anyways, most of my SHLD short vertical calls expired worthless ($$$), except the naked call for $100. That got assigned when it closed at about $103. When I woke up in L.A. at around 10am or 12pm EST and found out it was trading at around $96.99 and I quickly covered for a tidy profit. This was 5 contracts, so short 500 shares of vanilla equity.
Started trading the VIX, currently have some naked calls expiring in October; several options, strike ranging from $37.75 - $42.75. I believe it is cash settled because I can't trade the VIX itself.
My ES day trading is doing pretty swell as well. :)
That's all folks!
Got back from Vegas (and L.A.) and AC a few days ago. Started playing craps and it is SOOO fun!
anyways, most of my SHLD short vertical calls expired worthless ($$$), except the naked call for $100. That got assigned when it closed at about $103. When I woke up in L.A. at around 10am or 12pm EST and found out it was trading at around $96.99 and I quickly covered for a tidy profit. This was 5 contracts, so short 500 shares of vanilla equity.
Started trading the VIX, currently have some naked calls expiring in October; several options, strike ranging from $37.75 - $42.75. I believe it is cash settled because I can't trade the VIX itself.
My ES day trading is doing pretty swell as well. :)
That's all folks!
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
NLV $22400
Cover the short on those VIX calls.
Shorted 10 Oct 27.5 calls and 25 Oct 30 calls instead.
Shorted 10 Oct 27.5 calls and 25 Oct 30 calls instead.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Lehman Part II
Lehman saga continues with the crooks from government trying to take down another investment bank by having an emergency meeting.
The solution is simple- Lehman should buy itself out. With market values of $3 bil, they can take themselves private for $5 bil.
Lehman can then do away with the short sellers and media - which is trying to profit by destroying the firm. The book value of the firm is $26 bil, even writing down its $30 bil real estate assets by another half - Lehman still worth $13 bil. By taking itself private, Lehman can survive - with bunch of pissed-off ex-shareholders.
+800 sh LEH.
The solution is simple- Lehman should buy itself out. With market values of $3 bil, they can take themselves private for $5 bil.
Lehman can then do away with the short sellers and media - which is trying to profit by destroying the firm. The book value of the firm is $26 bil, even writing down its $30 bil real estate assets by another half - Lehman still worth $13 bil. By taking itself private, Lehman can survive - with bunch of pissed-off ex-shareholders.
+800 sh LEH.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
NLV $24900 Where will Lehman be?
5 MER puts came back for me. Very nice. The Sept. USO calls look like they are done for.
Lehman is hitting the rock hard, quote my friends :
An ex-Lehman employee: Lehman is done
A current Citi employee: i'm actually glad i work for Citigroup today
A current Lehman employee (after I asked her for Lehman shirt and sweater) : idiot! shit aint a joke!
The tension is definitely high.
Note: My PnL is on par with Thomas' now. But I shall destroy him like a Cat 5 hurricane by the end of the year.
Lehman is hitting the rock hard, quote my friends :
An ex-Lehman employee: Lehman is done
A current Citi employee: i'm actually glad i work for Citigroup today
A current Lehman employee (after I asked her for Lehman shirt and sweater) : idiot! shit aint a joke!
The tension is definitely high.
Note: My PnL is on par with Thomas' now. But I shall destroy him like a Cat 5 hurricane by the end of the year.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
$24000 NLV
Shorted some cubes (QQQQ) at the $46s and 47s. Crashed hard for couple of days. +8.5k
Long USO in front of Gustav - ripped up on this one. -5k
Apple short expired worthless. -3k
As Apple hosted its "Let's Rock" event, the stock tanked back where I started shorting. Lesson learned- Apple only moves on these products announcement date. And look at Steve Jobs, his skinniest is directly correlated with the thinness of his product. As the iPod touch get thinner, so does Steve.
I still question Steve Job's health here. Apple is a $120 stock in disguise.
On the other front, Goldman's earnings will be out next week - have a little bullish feeling on this one as GS is getting sold with this Lehman news. Not sticking my head out for them as there might be couple billions of write down coming. I would short Morgan Stanley instead.
I'm just glad the summer dullness and light volumes days are over. I should not trade during summer time- never had good trades or good reasons to trade. Next year I'm taking a 2 months vacation.
R.I.P. Fannie and Freddie, you guys were such a great couple. Sad to see you go.
Long USO in front of Gustav - ripped up on this one. -5k
Apple short expired worthless. -3k
As Apple hosted its "Let's Rock" event, the stock tanked back where I started shorting. Lesson learned- Apple only moves on these products announcement date. And look at Steve Jobs, his skinniest is directly correlated with the thinness of his product. As the iPod touch get thinner, so does Steve.
I still question Steve Job's health here. Apple is a $120 stock in disguise.
On the other front, Goldman's earnings will be out next week - have a little bullish feeling on this one as GS is getting sold with this Lehman news. Not sticking my head out for them as there might be couple billions of write down coming. I would short Morgan Stanley instead.
I'm just glad the summer dullness and light volumes days are over. I should not trade during summer time- never had good trades or good reasons to trade. Next year I'm taking a 2 months vacation.
R.I.P. Fannie and Freddie, you guys were such a great couple. Sad to see you go.
Monday, September 8, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $29,911.19
Jeez! it's been a while since i've posted. my fx account pretty much blew up. it was a good lesson learned. way over leveraged and fx is too slow for me (although i have touched the futures and they move f'n fast).
i spoke with a trader last weekend and he taught me some neat stuff, mostly psychological. i think i'm starting to get the hang of futures trading--making sure i have hard stops in place. lesson learned though, i lost more than $3,000 last thursday trying to swing trade the ES, but that thing tanked HARD. picked up a couple of ES options and then we find out that the US gov't is bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That put me in the money of around $1,500, although I covered quite quickly. While picking up the call options, I quickly learned that I'm an idiot. It seems that these future options trade around the clock (stock options trade only during trading hours), so the spread was huge and my bid for the options was only a couple of dimes under the highest bid--so that set me back a good amount before the day even opened.
I'm heading over to the west coas for a trip this Wednesday, so I'm not sure if i will be trading much. I don't want any positions open while i'm gone but I am still short those SHLD vertical calls. Let's hope SHLD closes under $100 next week (even though it has touched $95 and that's getting me a bit nervous).
Good trading all!
i spoke with a trader last weekend and he taught me some neat stuff, mostly psychological. i think i'm starting to get the hang of futures trading--making sure i have hard stops in place. lesson learned though, i lost more than $3,000 last thursday trying to swing trade the ES, but that thing tanked HARD. picked up a couple of ES options and then we find out that the US gov't is bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That put me in the money of around $1,500, although I covered quite quickly. While picking up the call options, I quickly learned that I'm an idiot. It seems that these future options trade around the clock (stock options trade only during trading hours), so the spread was huge and my bid for the options was only a couple of dimes under the highest bid--so that set me back a good amount before the day even opened.
I'm heading over to the west coas for a trip this Wednesday, so I'm not sure if i will be trading much. I don't want any positions open while i'm gone but I am still short those SHLD vertical calls. Let's hope SHLD closes under $100 next week (even though it has touched $95 and that's getting me a bit nervous).
Good trading all!
Monday, August 4, 2008
$35,701.81
Just wanted throw a quick update out there. Been trading more actively with the ES. Dollar is just killing me.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
$35,340.18
Dollar rallied. Killing some of my earnings in FX. =(
On a happier note, I just found out I passed level 1 of the CFA curriculum. Woot!
On a happier note, I just found out I passed level 1 of the CFA curriculum. Woot!
NLV $21----
I dont know I dont care whats the exact numbers, I'm losing money temporarily.
I took today's rebound to get out of my long SSO. I believe I can get it at a lower price.
I also took today's opportunity to get short Merrill Lynch. + 5 put strike 22.5 September 08
The reason to short Merrill and their b/s CEO is because:
1. They are still patching their balance sheet. Sure most of the CDOs junks are off, but they are still facing tough economics environment. Not to mention they finance 75% of the purchase- so they are only getting ~$2 billions for something that used to be worth $30 billions. NICE TRY.
2. $8.55 billions issued at $22.5 a share- that's below market price. And you paid $2.5 billions to the Singapore to cover their losses. Merrill, who you tryna fool? FOOL!
3. To sneak into the news, a $5.7 billions write off. Net-Net Merrill, you just patched up your balance sheet.
4. That left your core business, which is to sell fancy investment vehicles and schemes to wealthy investors and charge them a nice fees. No other core businesses, just bunch of brokers and FAs. These guys better find more (stupid) wealthy people to pitch their b/s to, because you don't have an i-bank division like GS and MS. In another word, your core business is WEAK. And you sold the only business you have that's actually increasing in value - Bloomberg LP.
Price Target: $15
At $26 bucks and putting a historical P/E of 13 on your core business, you have to earn $2/sh to worth your today's price. With all the dilutions, DREAM ON FOOL!
HEY, WHO SOLD BUNCH OF SHARES BEFORE THE CAPITAL RAISING ANNOUNCEMENT?!!? (DOWN 9% THE DAY BEFORE THE ANNOUNCEMENT). NO INSIDER TRADING HUH??! SEC can BLOW ME.
I took today's rebound to get out of my long SSO. I believe I can get it at a lower price.
I also took today's opportunity to get short Merrill Lynch. + 5 put strike 22.5 September 08
The reason to short Merrill and their b/s CEO is because:
1. They are still patching their balance sheet. Sure most of the CDOs junks are off, but they are still facing tough economics environment. Not to mention they finance 75% of the purchase- so they are only getting ~$2 billions for something that used to be worth $30 billions. NICE TRY.
2. $8.55 billions issued at $22.5 a share- that's below market price. And you paid $2.5 billions to the Singapore to cover their losses. Merrill, who you tryna fool? FOOL!
3. To sneak into the news, a $5.7 billions write off. Net-Net Merrill, you just patched up your balance sheet.
4. That left your core business, which is to sell fancy investment vehicles and schemes to wealthy investors and charge them a nice fees. No other core businesses, just bunch of brokers and FAs. These guys better find more (stupid) wealthy people to pitch their b/s to, because you don't have an i-bank division like GS and MS. In another word, your core business is WEAK. And you sold the only business you have that's actually increasing in value - Bloomberg LP.
Price Target: $15
At $26 bucks and putting a historical P/E of 13 on your core business, you have to earn $2/sh to worth your today's price. With all the dilutions, DREAM ON FOOL!
HEY, WHO SOLD BUNCH OF SHARES BEFORE THE CAPITAL RAISING ANNOUNCEMENT?!!? (DOWN 9% THE DAY BEFORE THE ANNOUNCEMENT). NO INSIDER TRADING HUH??! SEC can BLOW ME.
Saturday, July 26, 2008
NLV $22000?
Another $5k should hit. Didn't bother checking the account.
Same position 400 SSO and 5 puts on AAPL.
Why short AAPL?
1. Steve Jobs health- sure his cancer is not acting up again, but he just had a surgery to fix a "bug".
2. Low guidance- we know AAPL likes to give b/s guidance. But tight margin and lower growth rate...the street has an estimate 24% over what AAPL is giving. So Apple must beat guidance by 24%+...not an easy feat at this time of the year.
3. Technical- lower highs, it looks like the stock is rolling over.
Note: I have 4 more weeks to prove AAPL is not worth at $160.
Same position 400 SSO and 5 puts on AAPL.
Why short AAPL?
1. Steve Jobs health- sure his cancer is not acting up again, but he just had a surgery to fix a "bug".
2. Low guidance- we know AAPL likes to give b/s guidance. But tight margin and lower growth rate...the street has an estimate 24% over what AAPL is giving. So Apple must beat guidance by 24%+...not an easy feat at this time of the year.
3. Technical- lower highs, it looks like the stock is rolling over.
Note: I have 4 more weeks to prove AAPL is not worth at $160.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
$35,593.34
What a bad day. My sleeping schedule is so off and I woke up late. Then VMW recovered along with the market and I'm down 60 cents on the options. Dollar is rallying as well due to oil prices going down, interest rates may be increased and recent market rally!
I still think there's a lot of room for VMW to sink. So I will be holding this position and may add on later.
I still think there's a lot of room for VMW to sink. So I will be holding this position and may add on later.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
$17079
$5k got in. Have a net loss of $1k today. Down $2k on AAPL 150 Aug put. Up $1k on 400 sh of SSO. Real dumb trades. Should pare down some sizes.
$36,516.19
What a rally today!
Well, I bought 5 puts on VMW. I don't think they will meet estimates and now they are down about 14% after hours. I hope I can profit $1,000 from the options.
Well, I bought 5 puts on VMW. I don't think they will meet estimates and now they are down about 14% after hours. I hope I can profit $1,000 from the options.
| EXEC TIME | SPREAD | SIDE | QTY | SYMBOL | SPC | EXP | STRIKE | TYPE | PRICE | NET PRICE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/22/2008 2:18:11 PM | SINGLE | BUY | VMW | 100 | Sep 08 | 30 | PUT | $2.00 | $2.00 | ||
Monday, July 21, 2008
$36,589.38
MMM...shorted the ES last Friday at 57.50. went up against me pretty badly, maybe half a grand (10 points). AXP (American Express) got dumped after reporting earnings. Customers are defaulting on their CC loans... which is pretty fucking bad. That and AAPL lower forecasts dropped the ES and I covered at 50.
SWEET.
I was thinking of buying puts on AXP, but never got around to that trade. so that kind of stings a bit. I'm also thinking of doing a little risk-arb with DNA (Genentech) and Roche. But I still have to look into the details of it. I also want to short airlines.
SWEET.
I was thinking of buying puts on AXP, but never got around to that trade. so that kind of stings a bit. I'm also thinking of doing a little risk-arb with DNA (Genentech) and Roche. But I still have to look into the details of it. I also want to short airlines.
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
$12990
Caught a falling knife. Wiped out most of the year profit. Never again.
Back to trading regular size.
Long 400 SSO at 58.40
Adding $5000 to pile on to that position.
Back to trading regular size.
Long 400 SSO at 58.40
Adding $5000 to pile on to that position.
Monday, July 14, 2008
$36,116.93
Wow it's been a while since I posted. I got quite lazy over the summer break. But I recently started reading the WSJ again, so hopefully I'll get some ideas soon. Right now, I'm thinking of a paired trade: shorting NYSE and longing NASDAQ. Reason is simply because Nasdaq is gaining more market share than NYSE; there was an article in the Journal today saying that NASDAQ are executing more Big Board trades than NYSE itself!
Also, you can note a jump in my NLV, but that's because I injected $5,000 on June 27th, 2008 into anothr broker, Interactive Brokers, to begin trading forex. Their fx platform is a little bit more developed than ToS. I was long AUD/USD and short USD/CAD. Basically, very bearish on the USD. Reasons include inflation troubles (oil, agricultural and metals) coupled with the Fed's reluctancy to raise rates, Fed's strong support for banks and unwillingness to let them fail ala free markets, real estate troubles, and now extending the credit card debt defaults as well.
I was debating with myself whether I want to include my FX portfolio into the blog, but I guess it's part of my learning experience. It's a major pain in the ass to add the two NLVs together.
Well anyway, like I said I had two positions: 1) long AUD/USD and 2) short USD/CAD. I expected to recieve net interest, kind of like a USD carry trade, but I was disappointed/pissed when I found IB charging my account for interest. Apparently the way they calculate the interest is a net debit interest.
So today, I covered my USD/CAD short because I saw a double bottom forming and my conviction for this trade was wavering. So I covered the trade for a nice $252.50 profit. I kind of regretted the trade later; what I should have done was placed a stop loss order and let the trade run itself. But I tried doing that with the AUD/USD and I had no idea how to do it with IB.
Unable to post chart right now, I'll try to get it up later.
Also, you can note a jump in my NLV, but that's because I injected $5,000 on June 27th, 2008 into anothr broker, Interactive Brokers, to begin trading forex. Their fx platform is a little bit more developed than ToS. I was long AUD/USD and short USD/CAD. Basically, very bearish on the USD. Reasons include inflation troubles (oil, agricultural and metals) coupled with the Fed's reluctancy to raise rates, Fed's strong support for banks and unwillingness to let them fail ala free markets, real estate troubles, and now extending the credit card debt defaults as well.
I was debating with myself whether I want to include my FX portfolio into the blog, but I guess it's part of my learning experience. It's a major pain in the ass to add the two NLVs together.
Well anyway, like I said I had two positions: 1) long AUD/USD and 2) short USD/CAD. I expected to recieve net interest, kind of like a USD carry trade, but I was disappointed/pissed when I found IB charging my account for interest. Apparently the way they calculate the interest is a net debit interest.
So today, I covered my USD/CAD short because I saw a double bottom forming and my conviction for this trade was wavering. So I covered the trade for a nice $252.50 profit. I kind of regretted the trade later; what I should have done was placed a stop loss order and let the trade run itself. But I tried doing that with the AUD/USD and I had no idea how to do it with IB.
Unable to post chart right now, I'll try to get it up later.
Monday, June 30, 2008
YC: $19136
The SPY calls are killing me. It is the worst trade of the year. Not because of the big drawdown it creates in my account. It is because I average down when all I wanted 10 contracts. I martingaled it.
Friday, June 27, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $30,272.94
big draw downs.
i'm thinking of adding to my losing position. keep in mind, this is a long term trade.
i'm thinking of adding to my losing position. keep in mind, this is a long term trade.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $30,660.44
| TIME PLACED | SPREAD | SIDE | QTY | SYMBOL | SPC | EXP | STRIKE | TYPE | PRICE | RULES | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/26/2008 8:32:22 AM | FUTURE | SELL | /GEU8 | 1 | FUTURE | $97.02 LIMIT | DAY | FILLED |
YC: +40 SPY 129 Calls
I started with 10 calls, then I just kept adding....crap. Didn't know the position is getting that big.
NLV $20893
NLV $20893
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
YC : -20 USO put
Sold my put for good profit. Lucky the oil inventory come in above expectation.
NLV $21565
NLV $21565
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Monday, June 23, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $30,994.69
| IME PLACED | SPREAD | SIDE | QTY | SYMBOL | SPC | EXP | STRIKE | TYPE | PRICE | RULES | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/23/2008 12:40:54 PM | FUTURE | SELL | /GEN8 | 1 | FUTURE | $97.08 LIMIT | DAY | FILLED |
shorted 1 eurodollar. US must raise interest rates to fight inflation. want to short dollar against the JPY and AUD too.
Friday, June 20, 2008
NLV $19130
Bought 20 July Puts 50 Strike QQQQ yesterday at the close and quickly sold them today. Not bad not bad...
NET LIQ VALUE: $30,916.45
| EXEC TIME | SPREAD | SIDE | QTY | SYMBOL | SPC | EXP | STRIKE | TYPE | PRICE | NET PRICE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/20/2008 9:47:47 AM | VERTICAL | SELL | SHLD | 100 | Sep 08 | 100 | CALL | $0.88 | $0.50 | ||
| BUY | SHLD | 100 | Sep 08 | 110 | CALL | $0.38 | |||||
sold a vertical call spread on SHLD.
summer is getting to me. so lazy and i can't generate any trade ideas!!!
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
NLV $17989
- 5 puts USO 112 Strike July 08
was looking for more downside, didn't get them today. Sold out for a profit.
Celtics in 6. I don't lie.
http://tradingtyyc.blogspot.com/2008/06/y-index-16400.html
was looking for more downside, didn't get them today. Sold out for a profit.
| 2/1/2007 | ($5,000.00) |
| 11/1/2007 | ($5,000.00) |
| 6/17/2008 | $17,989.00 |
| annualized irr | 75.82% |
| return | 79.89% |
| net | $7,989.00 |
Celtics in 6. I don't lie.
http://tradingtyyc.blogspot.com/2008/06/y-index-16400.html
Monday, June 16, 2008
Thursday, June 12, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $30,906.46
| EXEC TIME | SPREAD | SIDE | QTY | SYMBOL | SPC | EXP | STRIKE | TYPE | PRICE | NET PRICE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/12/2008 10:20:12 AM | VERTICAL | BUY | LEH | 100 | Jun 08 | 38 | CALL | $0.03 | $0.01 | ||
| SELL | LEH | 100 | Jun 08 | 40 | CALL | $0.02 | |||||
| 6/12/2008 10:20:10 AM | VERTICAL | BUY | LEH | 100 | Jun 08 | 38 | CALL | $0.03 | $0.01 | ||
| SELL | LEH | 100 | Jun 08 | 40 | CALL | $0.02 | |||||
| 6/12/2008 9:14:35 AM | VERTICAL | BUY | LEH | 100 | Jun 08 | 38 | CALL | $0.03 | $0.01 | ||
| SELL | LEH | 100 | Jun 08 | 40 | CALL | $0.02 | |||||
covered my LEH spread.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Monday, June 9, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $30,877.97
| TIME PLACED | SPREAD | SIDE | QTY | SYMBOL | SPC | EXP | STRIKE | TYPE | PRICE | RULES | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/9/2008 1:38:37 PM | SINGLE | SELL | GPS | 100 | Sep 08 | 15 | PUT | $0.60 LIMIT | DAY | FILLED |
Covered my Gap (GPS) put.
LEH is in trouble.
Gee....$17440
Closed out both LEH and AIG. Nothing major left on my book.
I think it's time for me to move my risk level up so I can bank more. This is getting slow.
I think it's time for me to move my risk level up so I can bank more. This is getting slow.
Sunday, June 8, 2008
Strategy run through
Strategy: Timing the market. Price is everything. Technical and Fundamental. Trade size varies with the level of conviction.
Instrument: Options, ETFs, stocks
Risk tolerance: 20-25% values of portfolio per day.
Average return per trade: 10-20%
Profitable trades:
GS 2000 +
USO 2000+
SPY 800+
VIX 1000+
Losers:
ES mini -1000
VLO -600
AAPL -200
C -150
Instrument: Options, ETFs, stocks
Risk tolerance: 20-25% values of portfolio per day.
Average return per trade: 10-20%
Profitable trades:
GS 2000 +
USO 2000+
SPY 800+
VIX 1000+
Losers:
ES mini -1000
VLO -600
AAPL -200
C -150
Saturday, June 7, 2008
Friday, June 6, 2008
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Y Index 16400
- 4 AIG July 40 Puts @ 4.80
Don't like the price action on AIG. Got out half of the position.
Lemon Brothers is turning sour. Thinking of covering. Thanks to my company personal trading policy. I did not have the exposure I wanted.
On a side note: Celtics in 6!
Don't like the price action on AIG. Got out half of the position.
Lemon Brothers is turning sour. Thinking of covering. Thanks to my company personal trading policy. I did not have the exposure I wanted.
On a side note: Celtics in 6!
NET LIQ VALUE: $30,490.52
| EXEC TIME | SPREAD | SIDE | QTY | SYMBOL | SPC | EXP | STRIKE | TYPE | PRICE | NET PRICE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3/2008 10:54:55 AM | VERTICAL | SELL | LEH | 100 | Jun 08 | 38 | CALL | $1.04 | $0.45 | ||
| BUY | LEH | 100 | Jun 08 | 40 | CALL | $0.59 | |||||
first spread trade!
this is net bearish on LEH. basically my net break even price will be @ ~$37.20. anything less and I will profit with $315 at expiration.
Monday, June 2, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $30,523.52
| EXEC TIME | SPREAD | SIDE | QTY | SYMBOL | SPC | EXP | STRIKE | TYPE | PRICE | NET PRICE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/2/2008 11:00:05 AM | SINGLE | SELL | HD | 100 | Aug 08 | 40 | PUT | $13.20 | $13.20 | ||
| 6/2/2008 9:37:29 AM | STOCK | BUY | LEH | STOCK | $35.60 | $35.60 | |||||
New all time high baby!
Saturday, May 31, 2008
Short Idea: LULU Morons!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LULU&t=1y
These guys sell yoga mats and other type of accessories. The chart is ugly, the business (retail) is ugly. What's not to hate?!
Short LULU!
These guys sell yoga mats and other type of accessories. The chart is ugly, the business (retail) is ugly. What's not to hate?!
Short LULU!
$15700
Cover 10 XHB @ 2.55 a piece- net $90 or so... whoop-de-do
AIG is oversold + the upgrade from Morgan's analyst helped boost its stock price. AIG was up over 4% on pre-market. Only to see half of the gains vanished by the close of the day. I'm breakeven on the AIG trade and down a bit on LEH.
Hurricane season starts officially on June 1st. Let see how we holding out this year. Never before do I think the insurers would be in trouble- especially the Big Dog like AIG. But stupid people do stupid things- one of their subsidiary is short massive amount of Credit Default Swaps- which caused losses of $9 billion last quarter. With more loan defaults and downgrade of mortgage back securities products, I think AIG has to take more pain next quarter. They are already tight on capital without any natural disaster. One major hurricane is all it take to tip them over at the brink of disaster. Maybe the Federal Reserve will consider open its discount window to the insurer then?
AIG is oversold + the upgrade from Morgan's analyst helped boost its stock price. AIG was up over 4% on pre-market. Only to see half of the gains vanished by the close of the day. I'm breakeven on the AIG trade and down a bit on LEH.
Hurricane season starts officially on June 1st. Let see how we holding out this year. Never before do I think the insurers would be in trouble- especially the Big Dog like AIG. But stupid people do stupid things- one of their subsidiary is short massive amount of Credit Default Swaps- which caused losses of $9 billion last quarter. With more loan defaults and downgrade of mortgage back securities products, I think AIG has to take more pain next quarter. They are already tight on capital without any natural disaster. One major hurricane is all it take to tip them over at the brink of disaster. Maybe the Federal Reserve will consider open its discount window to the insurer then?
Friday, May 30, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $30,103.07
SHLD missed earnings yesterday. More gloom and doom in the housing market. All time high.
covered 5 options for SHLD.
| EXEC TIME | SPREAD | SIDE | QTY | SYMBOL | SPC | EXP | STRIKE | TYPE | PRICE | NET PRICE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/30/2008 9:21:01 AM | SINGLE | BUY | SHLD | 100 | Jun 08 | 95 | CALL | $0.40 | $0.40 | ||
covered 5 options for SHLD.
Thursday, May 29, 2008
short, long, short....I'm all over the place
New position:
+2 LEH July 40 strike Put @ 6.25
+8 AIG July 40 strike Put @ 5.25
Old:
-10 XHB Dec 19 Put @ 2.65
+100 S @ 6.06
+100 KRY @ 4.23
NLV: $16,100
+2 LEH July 40 strike Put @ 6.25
+8 AIG July 40 strike Put @ 5.25
Old:
-10 XHB Dec 19 Put @ 2.65
+100 S @ 6.06
+100 KRY @ 4.23
NLV: $16,100
Sears Posts Unexpected Loss; Costco Profit Exceeds Estimates
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFvdjFm32P4M&refer=home
"Sears fell $3.51, or 3.9 percent, to $85.85 at 7 a.m. New York time in trading before the Nasdaq Stock Market opened. The shares declined 12 percent this year through yesterday."
Uh...sweet? But as of right now, the bid x ask is at 90.36 x 90.86, so I'm confused...
"Sears fell $3.51, or 3.9 percent, to $85.85 at 7 a.m. New York time in trading before the Nasdaq Stock Market opened. The shares declined 12 percent this year through yesterday."
Uh...sweet? But as of right now, the bid x ask is at 90.36 x 90.86, so I'm confused...
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $28,591.09
| EXEC TIME | SPREAD | SIDE | QTY | SYMBOL | SPC | EXP | STRIKE | TYPE | PRICE | NET PRICE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/28/2008 2:07:17 PM | SINGLE | SELL | SHLD | 100 | Jun 08 | 95 | CALL | $2.30 | $2.30 | ||
| 5/28/2008 1:34:27 PM | STOCK | BUY | LEH | STOCK | $35.20 | $35.20 | |||||
| 5/28/2008 10:33:33 AM | SINGLE | SELL | SHLD | 100 | Jun 08 | 100 | CALL | $1.15 | $1.15 | ||
| 5/28/2008 10:33:33 AM | SINGLE | SELL | SHLD | 100 | Jun 08 | 100 | CALL | $1.15 | $1.15 | ||
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $28,550.65
New home sales data were better than expected: bullish rally. And the market thinks the housing market is picking up (and foreclosure auctions too).
Attempted two trades today:
Shorted 200 shares of LEH with an average price of $36.045.
Tried to buy a few puts for AIG, but didn't execute.
I'll try again tomorrow.
Attempted two trades today:
Shorted 200 shares of LEH with an average price of $36.045.
Tried to buy a few puts for AIG, but didn't execute.
I'll try again tomorrow.
Monday, May 26, 2008
I play analyst
Sell :
Bonds (inflation is going to eat away real return, non-inflation index bonds are done)
AIG - the sneaky insurance company raise $12 billions dollar. One hurricane and AIG would be in deep doodles
LEH - holding off on those write downs huh?
LUV - fuel hedges are running out. Enjoy the $50 a barrel hedge while you can!
Hold:
FXI/EWT - China/Taiwan for long term.
PBR - The Black Gold mine.
EWZ
Buy:
TIP - iShares Lehman TIPS Bond (TIP)
Bonds (inflation is going to eat away real return, non-inflation index bonds are done)
AIG - the sneaky insurance company raise $12 billions dollar. One hurricane and AIG would be in deep doodles
LEH - holding off on those write downs huh?
LUV - fuel hedges are running out. Enjoy the $50 a barrel hedge while you can!
Hold:
FXI/EWT - China/Taiwan for long term.
PBR - The Black Gold mine.
EWZ
Buy:
TIP - iShares Lehman TIPS Bond (TIP)
Sunday, May 25, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $29,037.16
Friday's NLV. The ES trades KILLED ME.
Studying for CFA now, so not much time left to trade. (although I'm not too concerned about passing the CFA or not.)
Studying for CFA now, so not much time left to trade. (although I'm not too concerned about passing the CFA or not.)
Saturday, May 24, 2008
NLV $15700
The market continued to get pressure on downward movement. Sell in May and Go away is in effect.
New Trade:
- 5 XHB Dec 08 19 Puts.
Open Position:
-10 XHB Dec 08 19 Put
+ 5 VLO Jun 08 60 Call
+5 C June 08 12.5 Put
I'm doubling down as usual.
New Trade:
- 5 XHB Dec 08 19 Puts.
Open Position:
-10 XHB Dec 08 19 Put
+ 5 VLO Jun 08 60 Call
+5 C June 08 12.5 Put
I'm doubling down as usual.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
NLV $16000 + change
Sold those SPY puts for $800. Gains were offset by some bullish play on XHB. Plan to get rid of these XHB puts (sold short).
Also have some VLO June 60 calls - it has been a small losing trade...but looks like it might be turning corner. Loving the OIL bubble.
Watch List: STLD. NUE has been going around to raise money. STLD becomes such an attractive target for NUE. CRS, CMC also can be a target.
NUE has the balance sheet flexibility. Recently, NUE is looking to raise $3-4 billions in the capital market. NUE also has $700 mil cash on hand and $4.8 bil short term assets. Making a medium size acquisition of companies with market cap under $10 billion is totally feasible for Nucor. Merger for metal companies give them more bargaining power with the suppliers, cost cut on excess labor and technology that can help further increase production efficiency.
Also have some VLO June 60 calls - it has been a small losing trade...but looks like it might be turning corner. Loving the OIL bubble.
Watch List: STLD. NUE has been going around to raise money. STLD becomes such an attractive target for NUE. CRS, CMC also can be a target.
NUE has the balance sheet flexibility. Recently, NUE is looking to raise $3-4 billions in the capital market. NUE also has $700 mil cash on hand and $4.8 bil short term assets. Making a medium size acquisition of companies with market cap under $10 billion is totally feasible for Nucor. Merger for metal companies give them more bargaining power with the suppliers, cost cut on excess labor and technology that can help further increase production efficiency.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $29,689.17
HD continues to drop.
All time high of $30,000+ intraday, until...
I bought 1 ES car at 1401. I'm an idiot, always getting on the wrong side of the trade.
=(
All time high of $30,000+ intraday, until...
I bought 1 ES car at 1401. I'm an idiot, always getting on the wrong side of the trade.
=(
Monday, May 19, 2008
+ 5 June SPY 144 Puts
Liking the afternoon price action, I bought some puts on SPY. There is actually a put expire on 4th week of the month... interesting.
NET LIQ VALUE: $28,406.18
Bought +5 HD puts August expiration $25 strike for $0.40.
HD earnings out tomorrow.
ES is killing me. I want to cover my short but... I can't psychologically do it! damn me.
HD earnings out tomorrow.
ES is killing me. I want to cover my short but... I can't psychologically do it! damn me.
Friday, May 16, 2008
Thursday, May 15, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $28,468.68
HD rises, down $150 more/total open PNL ($612.50)
SOLD -1 /ESM8 @1413.75 CME
holding overnight. ($412.50) at the moment
SOLD -1 /ESM8 @1413.75 CME
holding overnight. ($412.50) at the moment
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Monday, May 12, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $29,221.18
Wal-mart is rumored to come out with good earnings tomorrow. Retailers rise. One headline from Bloomberg says WMT may have taken market share from Sears and Macy's. SHLD rose today... makes no sense.
Friday, May 9, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $29,496.18
SHLD options continue to fall in value. nice.
Bought +5 Home Depot puts for $12. Risking up to $6,000 to bet that Home Depot will fall in value. I bought (in paper account) +5 Lowe's puts on 5/1 and it is currently up $1,000+. So let's see how this HD trade will work out.
| EXEC TIME | SPREAD | SIDE | QTY | SYMBOL | SPC | EXP | STRIKE | TYPE | PRICE | NET PRICE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/9/2008 9:24:54 AM | SINGLE | BUY | HD | 100 | Aug 08 | 40 | PUT | $12.00 | $12.00 | ||
Bought +5 Home Depot puts for $12. Risking up to $6,000 to bet that Home Depot will fall in value. I bought (in paper account) +5 Lowe's puts on 5/1 and it is currently up $1,000+. So let's see how this HD trade will work out.
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $29,356.18
All time high. SHLD drops some more and I traded the ES for +$50. Sold BBY naked calls for $125.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Monday, May 5, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $28,672.18
Mostly paper gains, SHLD coming back down. If it comes back up to $103 range I will buy puts on it.
Traded ES and lost $75 realized for it.
Traded ES and lost $75 realized for it.
Saturday, May 3, 2008
Friday, May 2, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $27,939.18
paper losses.
SHLD shot up to $103.22, let's see how it will open on Monday
SHLD shot up to $103.22, let's see how it will open on Monday
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $28,682.21
what a sweet day.
shorted 1 ES at $1405.25 right after the fed cut announcement and placed a cover call at $1399.00. It hit and grossed me $312.50 in less than two minutes. SWEET.
and my options are coming back. SHLD's day pnl: $625.00
Happy day.
shorted 1 ES at $1405.25 right after the fed cut announcement and placed a cover call at $1399.00. It hit and grossed me $312.50 in less than two minutes. SWEET.
and my options are coming back. SHLD's day pnl: $625.00
Happy day.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $27,553.21
No trades today. SHLD traded up to $103 though. That got me a little nervous. I noticed that the mark of the options didn't move in sync with the underlying. That was very interesting. Maybe some insider trading or it's not liquid enough. I should really learn how to price options.
Monday, April 28, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $27,643.21
Not much went on today. I thought of shorting some more SHLD but decided against it; I will after the Fed announcement this coming Wednesday. SBUX report earnings on Wed too.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
NLV $12900
Took a massive beating this week.
Long 20 contracts put May 89 USO
All eggs in one basket...
Long 20 contracts put May 89 USO
All eggs in one basket...
Friday, April 25, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $27,985.72
As expected, MSFT tanked and my call option is pretty much worthless. I sold a 5 calls for SHLD @ $1.20 May $105.
BBY is $45, creeping up to my $47.50 strike naked calls.
| 4/25/2008 8:37:59 AM | SINGLE | SELL | SHLD | 100 | May 08 | 105 | CALL | $1.20 | $1.20 | ||
BBY is $45, creeping up to my $47.50 strike naked calls.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $28,455.72
Trades (excluding futures):
Covered my URBN short and realized several hundred in losses.
Covered my RIMM today at $0.90 to realize $75. good thing I did that. RIMM jumped to the $123-125 range in the mid-day.
Bought 5 MSFT calls hoping that they beat earnings tonight (which they did). But it is trading down after markets because they are lowering their forecasts for Q3. It's only $200 exposure, so that's a good cheap lesson learned. Will probably hold it to expiration and see how it goes.
| 4/24/2008 10:56:31 AM | SINGLE | BUY | MSFT | 100 | May 08 | 34 | CALL | $0.40 | $0.40 | ||
| 4/24/2008 8:40:03 AM | SINGLE | BUY | RIMM | 100 | May 08 | 140 | CALL | $0.90 | $0.90 | ||
| 4/24/2008 8:37:48 AM | STOCK | BUY | URBN | STOCK | $32.50 | $32.50 | |||||
Covered my URBN short and realized several hundred in losses.
Covered my RIMM today at $0.90 to realize $75. good thing I did that. RIMM jumped to the $123-125 range in the mid-day.
Bought 5 MSFT calls hoping that they beat earnings tonight (which they did). But it is trading down after markets because they are lowering their forecasts for Q3. It's only $200 exposure, so that's a good cheap lesson learned. Will probably hold it to expiration and see how it goes.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $28,502.23
scene: I'm in Atlanta's airport connecting to a flight for Cancun. I call my broker and SHLD shot up to about $103-104 on goo d earnings from other co's. I'm pussying out and told him to cover my 5 April naked calls at $3.7. I sold them at $2.10. So, 500 x (3.7-2.1) = $800 loss. And I find out later that it opened higher on monday then retreated to below the strike of $100. I'm a fucking idiot. SHLD is trading today afterhours at $95. I could've been up $6,000 on this baby.
Lesson learned. ;(
Sold 5 naked calls of RIMM at $1.05
Option holdings:
I'm looking to sell a few naked calls on Blockbuster.
Lesson learned. ;(
Sold 5 naked calls of RIMM at $1.05
| EXEC TIME | SPREAD | SIDE | QTY | SYMBOL | SPC | EXP | STRIKE | TYPE | PRICE | NET PRICE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/23/2008 9:08:58 AM | SINGLE | SELL | RIMM | 100 | May 08 | 140 | CALL | $1.05 | $1.05 | ||
Option holdings:
| BBYFW | BBY 100 JUN 08 47.5 CALL | -5 | $0.95 | ($475.00) |
| KTQFY | SHLD 100 JUN 08 130 CALL | -5 | $0.45 | ($225.00) |
| URQRX | URBN 100 JUN 08 22.5 PUT | 5 | $0.15 | $75.00 |
| SQXEV | SBUX 100 MAY 08 21 CALL | -5 | $0.04 | ($20.00) |
| RULEH | RIMM 100 MAY 08 140 CALL | -5 | $0.845 | ($422.50 |
I'm looking to sell a few naked calls on Blockbuster.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
NLV $14583
Traded some ES. NLV slowly marched back up. No setup this week. Market is closing in on new highs. Break thru 1400, we are set up for a nice bull run.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $28,254.75
haven't traded much lately. really busy at work.
two new options positions:
option positions:
two new options positions:
| 4/16/2008 2:36:43 PM | SINGLE | SELL | SHLD | 100 | Apr 08 | 105 | CALL | $0.40 | $0.40 | ||
| 4/16/2008 12:50:50 PM | SINGLE | SELL | SHLD | 100 | Apr 08 | 100 | CALL | $2.10 | $2.10 | ||
option positions:
| OPRA | DESCRIPTION | CONTRACTS | PRICE | MKT VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBYFW | BBY 100 JUN 08 47.5 CALL | -5 | $0.875 | ($437.50) |
| KTQDT | SHLD 100 APR 08 100 CALL | -5 | $2.95 | ($1,475.00) |
| KTQDA | SHLD 100 APR 08 105 CALL | -4 | $0.55 | ($220.00) |
| KTQFY | SHLD 100 JUN 08 130 CALL | -5 | $1.15 | ($575.00) |
| URQRX | URBN 100 JUN 08 22.5 PUT | 5 | $0.25 | $125.00 |
| SQXEV | SBUX 100 MAY 08 21 CALL | -5 | $0.065 | ($32.50) |
Monday, April 14, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $29,045.27
i had an exam today. didn't really feel the vibe trading. i stopped with a $200 loss on the ES. shorted 100 shares of URBN by MISTAKE!
good thing my naked calls are going black.
good thing my naked calls are going black.
WTF spike?
wth just happened? i was just short this too and good thing i covered.
Okay, so retail sales came out @ 8:30am. beated estimates of 0.0% to 0.2%
it's already trending back down to 1327.
Saturday, April 12, 2008
"Dude, where is my return on investment?"
Let's play this game call "ANALYST"
Buy? Sell? or Hold?
SELL SELL SELL?
Friday, April 11, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $29,150.47
So my short came in today. GE misses its earnings expectations and revenues fall short. Consumer confidence also short of expectations. Earned more than $4,000 today.
Good day all!
Good day all!
NLV $14300
I'm lagging return big time. It's time for me add more gun powder to my account. I'm going to add $5000 to the account. Next week. I'm gunning for $10k profit by year end.
Perfect SH set up, I let it go and not get back in. How stupid.
Perfect SH set up, I let it go and not get back in. How stupid.
S&P futures vs fair value: -14.4
quick morning update. got to the office and the ES is down 14 points. tanked because of GE earnings.
GE Profit Declines, Misses Estimates, as Credit Freeze Forces Writedowns General Electric Co. reported its first decline in quarterly profit since 2003, missing analyst estimates with a 12 percent drop in earnings as a freeze-up in credit markets blocked asset sales and forced it to write down the value of investments.
covered 2 ES shorts. currently up about $3770 for the day. waiting for consumer sentiment to come out @ 10am. i think it'll drop more from there. 80% of the US economy is driven by consumer spending.
also forgot to note yesterday: i sold -5 naked call options on Sears (SHLD) for $1.80
GE Profit Declines, Misses Estimates, as Credit Freeze Forces Writedowns General Electric Co. reported its first decline in quarterly profit since 2003, missing analyst estimates with a 12 percent drop in earnings as a freeze-up in credit markets blocked asset sales and forced it to write down the value of investments.
covered 2 ES shorts. currently up about $3770 for the day. waiting for consumer sentiment to come out @ 10am. i think it'll drop more from there. 80% of the US economy is driven by consumer spending.
also forgot to note yesterday: i sold -5 naked call options on Sears (SHLD) for $1.80
Thursday, April 10, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $24,627.48
market rallied today based on a mixed news. good earnings or upward revision of earnings for companies like GE, Walmart, and tech companies. Goldman Sach's CEO Blankfein also agreed with Morgan Stanley's CEO John Mack that the recession is closer to the end than it is to the beginning. I however feel very different. If they really knew what was going on, would they be in this credit meltdown? Consumer sentiment comes out tomorrow at 10am. There is already an article on Bloomberg saying it will be pretty bad.
Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Probably Fell to 16-Year Low on Jobs
Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Probably Fell to 16-Year Low on Jobs
By Courtney Schlisserman
April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers sank to a 16-year low this month as the labor market continued to weaken and gasoline prices rose, economists said ahead of a private report today.
I am short overnight four ES contracts. We'll see how it ends up.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $27,461.48
what a sweet sweet day.
bad news all over.
IMF predicts $945 bn in writedowns. co's are missing earnings. etc etc.
covered all my ES shorts. so now i can sleep a little more sound.
naked calls are growing blacker lol.
here's a quick analysis i did on my returns:
bad news all over.
IMF predicts $945 bn in writedowns. co's are missing earnings. etc etc.
covered all my ES shorts. so now i can sleep a little more sound.
naked calls are growing blacker lol.
here's a quick analysis i did on my returns:
| 12/20/2007 | ($10,000.00) |
| 3/20/2008 | ($10,000.00) |
| 4/2/2008 | ($5,000.00) |
| 4/9/2008 | $27,461.48 |
| annualized irr | 85.09% |
| IRR | 4.34% |
| Net | $2,461.48 |
Monday, April 7, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $26,389.98
same old. my naked calls are coming back into the black. shorted a ES and it shot up. left a limit order to cover at 1.50 under. that hit later in the noon.
A few news headlines:
Alcoa Profit Drops 54%, Falls Short of Estimates on Rising Commodity Costs
Advanced Micro Misses Its Revenue Forecast, Plans to Eliminate 10% of Jobs
TPG and other PE firms plan to inject $5bn into WaMu
A few news headlines:
Alcoa Profit Drops 54%, Falls Short of Estimates on Rising Commodity Costs
Advanced Micro Misses Its Revenue Forecast, Plans to Eliminate 10% of Jobs
TPG and other PE firms plan to inject $5bn into WaMu
| Consumer Credit - M/M change | |
| Consensus | $ 5.3 B |
| Actual | $ 5.1 B |
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Chinese oil
"We Chinese no pay twice for gas!"In my other blog, I've mentioned in November that PetroChina is way overpriced. (and some what skeptical of GOOG @ $700). I'm officially patting me-self on the back.
http://credoip.blogspot.com/2007/11/whole-lot-of-irrational-exuberance.html
Time to be bearish?
A nice buy-the-dip/support level trade here. SH = Inverse S&P 500 return x 2.@1360-70, the risk/ reward of shorting the S&P become favorable. I'll start to look for levels to short into the ES.
The employment news was just bad. The market doesn't seem to be reacting too much to it. All we need is some bad news to send this market down the spiral.
| Apr 07 | 15:00 | Consumer Credit | Feb | $5.0B | $6.0B | $6.9B | ||
| Apr 08 | 10:00 | Pending Home Sales | Feb | -0.5% | 0.0% | |||
| Apr 08 | 14:00 | FOMC Minutes | Mar 18 | |||||
| Apr 09 | 10:00 | Wholesale Inventories | Feb | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | ||
| Apr 09 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 04/05 | NA | NA | 7317K | ||
| Apr 10 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 04/05 | 380K | NA | 407K | ||
| Apr 10 | 08:30 | Trade Balance | Feb | -$57.6B | -$57.4B | -$58.2B | ||
| Apr 10 | 14:00 | Treasury Budget | Mar | -$70.0B | -$80.0B | -$96.3B | ||
| Apr 11 | 08:30 | Export Prices ex-ag. | Mar | NA | NA | 0.5% | ||
| Apr 11 | 08:30 | Import Prices ex-oil | Mar | NA | NA | 0.6% | ||
| Apr 11 | 10:00 | Mich Sentiment-Prel. | Apr | 68.0 | 69.4 | 69.5 |
Pending home sales and FOMC will be the market mover of the week. Monday would likely be a slow day. I'm looking for the market to get volatile after Tuesday. Volatility = Opportunity.
What's the rate cut expectation by the way?
Thursday, April 3, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $25,459.49
Capital injection came in and reflected in price. Not much trading today, but there were some big news. Jobless claims came out worse than expected. From Bloomberg:
George Soros also spoke out about things haven't been this bad since the Great Depression (late 1920's). Markets tanked pre-market open and at the market open, but rallied at 10am. I believe this is because investors expect the Fed to bail them out. I think commodity prices and companies related (eg. Exxon) also drove the market higher. I was sort of bullish on the dollar, but now I just want to short it.
Made two dumb trades that happened because I had default futures order at 2 cars, when I meant to do one car. Lesson learned.
Employment situation supposed to come out today at 8:30am. We'll see how that goes.
New Claims - Level Consensus 366 K Actual 407 - Definition
- New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Do Investors Care?
- Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.
- There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look out for inflationary pressures.
- By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
- Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
George Soros also spoke out about things haven't been this bad since the Great Depression (late 1920's). Markets tanked pre-market open and at the market open, but rallied at 10am. I believe this is because investors expect the Fed to bail them out. I think commodity prices and companies related (eg. Exxon) also drove the market higher. I was sort of bullish on the dollar, but now I just want to short it.
Made two dumb trades that happened because I had default futures order at 2 cars, when I meant to do one car. Lesson learned.
Employment situation supposed to come out today at 8:30am. We'll see how that goes.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
$5,000 capital injection, NET LIQ VALUE: $20,717.99
Liquidity crisis!
added another $5,000 to the account. another margin call ;(. funds aren't reflected yet. this is a convo between me and yin last night:
yang: im just worried about margin calls tom
yin: damn man
yin: whats ur avg price
yin: u only took 5pt
yang: yea
yang: lol
yin: thats some dangerous shit dude
yin: u not afriad at all?
yang: na
yin: jesus
yin: what if it goes against u
yin: what would u do
yin: WWTD
zyang: liquidity crisis
yang: lol
yang: prob inject 5k?
yang: ask for some foreign investments
yang: sell some convertibles like leh an dhope it oversubscribes?
yang: lol
anyway while i was asleep at 6am, the ES dropped to about 1363, below my avg of 64.5. missed my cover chance! it opened against me this am at work, i was quickly down about 1 grand for the day. i believe i was down almost 2 grand too. then in the late afternoon started dropping. i covered one contract (limit buy) at 63. that was the low for the day so i caught that one nicely. news today: paulson argues that the recession won't be that bad; bernanke warns of a possible recession. nice contradictions.
BBY's earnings were not as bad as expected due to laptop sales. opened up to 45.8, from previous day's 43.47. scared that crap out of me. 1) i have a NAKED call on bby, and 2) shows that the US economy is freaking resilient. good thing that sh*t traded back down to 43.94
anyway im still short 3 ES overnight again. hope it drops a good 10 points so ill earn a few grand.
added another $5,000 to the account. another margin call ;(. funds aren't reflected yet. this is a convo between me and yin last night:
yang: im just worried about margin calls tom
yin: damn man
yin: whats ur avg price
yin: u only took 5pt
yang: yea
yang: lol
yin: thats some dangerous shit dude
yin: u not afriad at all?
yang: na
yin: jesus
yin: what if it goes against u
yin: what would u do
yin: WWTD
zyang: liquidity crisis
yang: lol
yang: prob inject 5k?
yang: ask for some foreign investments
yang: sell some convertibles like leh an dhope it oversubscribes?
yang: lol
anyway while i was asleep at 6am, the ES dropped to about 1363, below my avg of 64.5. missed my cover chance! it opened against me this am at work, i was quickly down about 1 grand for the day. i believe i was down almost 2 grand too. then in the late afternoon started dropping. i covered one contract (limit buy) at 63. that was the low for the day so i caught that one nicely. news today: paulson argues that the recession won't be that bad; bernanke warns of a possible recession. nice contradictions.
BBY's earnings were not as bad as expected due to laptop sales. opened up to 45.8, from previous day's 43.47. scared that crap out of me. 1) i have a NAKED call on bby, and 2) shows that the US economy is freaking resilient. good thing that sh*t traded back down to 43.94
anyway im still short 3 ES overnight again. hope it drops a good 10 points so ill earn a few grand.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $20,258.49
back to square one. what a crazy day.
began trading 2 contracts per trade.
i was shorting and covering on a bull day.
early am, i was +$212 but decided to earn up to $500 or so. quickly blew me back down to -80 - +160. then things got really wild and i shorted and i didnt put a stop loss. i felt that the market would slip near the close. didn't go that way and decided to short two more cars. no way the market would rally nearly 4% on no change in fundamentals. as yin said, LEH's issue was oversubscribed and the ISM was better than expected but still. there were PLENTY of bad news, eg. UBS, MER writedowns, more writedowns expected to come, etc. a interesting tidbit is that the SEC has allowed the banks to mark to model aka mark to whatever you want.
so im down a bit over a grand over the 4 es shorts (which i am still holding; hope market drops)
BBY naked call option dropped $238
URBN put option dropped $75
began trading 2 contracts per trade.
i was shorting and covering on a bull day.
early am, i was +$212 but decided to earn up to $500 or so. quickly blew me back down to -80 - +160. then things got really wild and i shorted and i didnt put a stop loss. i felt that the market would slip near the close. didn't go that way and decided to short two more cars. no way the market would rally nearly 4% on no change in fundamentals. as yin said, LEH's issue was oversubscribed and the ISM was better than expected but still. there were PLENTY of bad news, eg. UBS, MER writedowns, more writedowns expected to come, etc. a interesting tidbit is that the SEC has allowed the banks to mark to model aka mark to whatever you want.
so im down a bit over a grand over the 4 es shorts (which i am still holding; hope market drops)
BBY naked call option dropped $238
URBN put option dropped $75
| SYMBOL | DESCRIPTION | CONTRACTS | SPC | TRADE PRICE | MARK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| /ESM8 | E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures,Jun-2008,ETH | -4 | 50 | $1,364.375 | $1,369.25 |
| OPRA | DESCRIPTION | CONTRACTS | PRICE | MKT VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBYFW | BBY 100 JUN 08 47.5 CALL | -5 | $1.625 | ($812.50) |
| URQRX | URBN 100 JUN 08 22.5 PUT | 5 | $0.40 | $200.00 |
and the market rallied....
The first day of the new quarter, there are a lot of money being put to work- mutual funds and pension funds are probably buying some equity to re-balance the equity portion of their portfolios. - since equity prices have been on the decline, that portion of the portfolio is actually less than their actual allocation- so they need to buy equity to readjust.
Lehman's ability to raise money debunked many rumors and myths about the bank inability to get access to liquidity- although it is bad for the bank's existing shareholders- their shares are now more diluted.
ISM number also came out better than expected- with no bad news insight- this give an extra boost.
All three factors added up to a 400 pts in the Dow IMO.
Lehman's ability to raise money debunked many rumors and myths about the bank inability to get access to liquidity- although it is bad for the bank's existing shareholders- their shares are now more diluted.
ISM number also came out better than expected- with no bad news insight- this give an extra boost.
All three factors added up to a 400 pts in the Dow IMO.
Monday, March 31, 2008
NLV: $22,607.69
traded the ES today. some crazy stuff. up around $187 early, but then the market started rallying; it might be due to short coverings, or the treasury's new plan to revamp the regulators in the financial markets. i sold 2 more ES contracts trying to bet it going down. then i was down nearly half a grand. was about to sell it off @ $1230ish, but then it started to slide and then i held it down and sold it contract by contract. ended the day with the ES at +$187 but commissions ate into earnings.
i also negotiated the commissions with TOS. sweet! $3 per futures contract and i think $1.99 per option.
i also sold a five naked calls of best buy.
i think i'll sell 5 SPY calls too if the sp500 rallies.
i also negotiated the commissions with TOS. sweet! $3 per futures contract and i think $1.99 per option.
i also sold a five naked calls of best buy.
| 3/31/2008 9:07:11 AM | SINGLE | SELL | BBY | 100 | Jun 08 | 47.5 | CALL | $1.05 |
i think i'll sell 5 SPY calls too if the sp500 rallies.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
HSI SPX Divergence
The Asian market usually follows the U.S. after the close. However, this is a weird occurrence where they are completely diverge. FXI, I'll be watching you.
Saturday, March 29, 2008
CItigroup, a bank we love
New Position: Bot 5 C puts Strike 12.5 June 08 @ 0.30
NLV has not move: $14500
I'm going to get into trading ES mini. A relatively dead market as it slowly churned downward. It goes to show not much buyers out there looking for bargains. No news has a definite impact on the market. All we waiting for its 1Q earnings.
The short in Citi is relatively easy to explain. First off, there were 40,000 of those contracts sold that day - ride the bandwagon. Next off is the lock-up in Auction rate securities market (ARS) is causing a run on the bank - People who had money in Merill or any other wealth management service providers are told to have their money in a relatively safe "money market" account. The money market account they have actually have ARS- which is dead at the moment. And firms are not allowing withdrawal. A lot of high net worth clients will shuffle and juggle b/w these banks. That will be the next shoe to drop. Financials are still dead money. I can be wrong about them, but the risk of going long the financials are not worth it at this point. I'll stay on the bench like I did in November. But if I have to buy, I would buy the best out of them all- Goldman Sachs.
NLV has not move: $14500
I'm going to get into trading ES mini. A relatively dead market as it slowly churned downward. It goes to show not much buyers out there looking for bargains. No news has a definite impact on the market. All we waiting for its 1Q earnings.
The short in Citi is relatively easy to explain. First off, there were 40,000 of those contracts sold that day - ride the bandwagon. Next off is the lock-up in Auction rate securities market (ARS) is causing a run on the bank - People who had money in Merill or any other wealth management service providers are told to have their money in a relatively safe "money market" account. The money market account they have actually have ARS- which is dead at the moment. And firms are not allowing withdrawal. A lot of high net worth clients will shuffle and juggle b/w these banks. That will be the next shoe to drop. Financials are still dead money. I can be wrong about them, but the risk of going long the financials are not worth it at this point. I'll stay on the bench like I did in November. But if I have to buy, I would buy the best out of them all- Goldman Sachs.
NLV $22,618.69
loss for the day. didn't really have much time to trade today. lots of work. and the market was pretty slow.
im out about $100 including commission. for those wondering why my NLV is still so high, my URBN put picked up a bit but i'm still down $25. i'm considering selling it, but it's only a $400 position.
NLV $22,618.69
im out about $100 including commission. for those wondering why my NLV is still so high, my URBN put picked up a bit but i'm still down $25. i'm considering selling it, but it's only a $400 position.
NLV $22,618.69
Thursday, March 27, 2008
trailing stop and One Cancels Other (OCO)
so today i finally learned (and used) trailing stops. while playing with it i also learned how to use OCO and then 1st trigger then OCO. so basically a bit of risk management.
trading seems to be getting easier and i'm up +$175.00 for the day. about 9 round trips, so commission ate about (9x$7) $63. Good lesssons though.
I've also decided to stop posting my day trading of the ES and will only post my option trades that are the result of my "speculation."
NET LIQ VALUE: $22,680.19
trading seems to be getting easier and i'm up +$175.00 for the day. about 9 round trips, so commission ate about (9x$7) $63. Good lesssons though.
I've also decided to stop posting my day trading of the ES and will only post my option trades that are the result of my "speculation."
NET LIQ VALUE: $22,680.19
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $22,550.19, day p&l +$150
so today i got to work at around 9am and checked the news.
Durable Goods Orders #s came out today. worse than expected. i wanted to short but had an uneasy feeling.
oracle also reports today after markets. oracle is a good indicator for tech spending. i was expecting it to be good and wanted to buy in, but held out. lucky me; orcl tanked about 9% from $20.90 to $19.20. earnings were in line with estimates, but revenue were a miss. this sent the sp500 down after markets.
the usual, day trading the ES
up $112.50 on 3 round trips.
i wanted to short 3 more times but missed out on what would've been a great run. no sour grapes though. at least i didn't lose money!
NET LIQ VALUE: $22,550.19
that last trade between 1:59pm and 2:16pm, it was a limit order that i had placed and kind of went off to do some work. it filled without me noticing and when i came back, i was up around 75. sweet surprises!
Durable Goods Orders #s came out today. worse than expected. i wanted to short but had an uneasy feeling.
oracle also reports today after markets. oracle is a good indicator for tech spending. i was expecting it to be good and wanted to buy in, but held out. lucky me; orcl tanked about 9% from $20.90 to $19.20. earnings were in line with estimates, but revenue were a miss. this sent the sp500 down after markets.
the usual, day trading the ES
up $112.50 on 3 round trips.
i wanted to short 3 more times but missed out on what would've been a great run. no sour grapes though. at least i didn't lose money!
| 3/26/2008 2:16:48 PM | FUTURE | BUY | /ESM8 | 50 | FUTURE | $1,344.25 | $1,344.25 | ||||
| 3/26/2008 1:59:25 PM | FUTURE | SELL | /ESM8 | 50 | FUTURE | $1,345.50 | $1,345.50 | ||||
| 3/26/2008 10:16:03 AM | FUTURE | BUY | /ESM8 | 50 | FUTURE | $1,341.25 | $1,341.25 | ||||
| 3/26/2008 10:06:25 AM | FUTURE | SELL | /ESM8 | 50 | FUTURE | $1,341.75 | $1,341.75 | ||||
| 3/26/2008 10:00:19 AM | FUTURE | BUY | /ESM8 | 50 | FUTURE | $1,340.50 | $1,340.50 | ||||
| 3/26/2008 9:57:14 AM | FUTURE | SELL | /ESM8 | 50 | $1,341.00 | $1,341.00 | |||||
that last trade between 1:59pm and 2:16pm, it was a limit order that i had placed and kind of went off to do some work. it filled without me noticing and when i came back, i was up around 75. sweet surprises!
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Daytrading is really not my cup of tea
A feeling that is all too familiar. This is on paper trading account of course. The Hang Seng sure as hell move quick. Better know your exit before you enter your trade.
Monday, March 24, 2008
$-522 First Losing Trade of the Year
So as I suspected, the shady BSC deal was revised today to five times its original bid. So JPM openly admitted that it was ripping off shareholders of BSC (30% of which is BSC employees). JPM share price barely budge today, that goes to show that JPM is still ripping BSC off. Like I mentioned in previous thread- BSC couldn't possible have $11 billion equity disappear in 1 quarter. JPM and the Fed is up to no good. The Fed could easily provided this $30bil cushion DIRECTLY to BSC to save BSC. Instead, the Fed engineered a take-under to destroy BSC- strange isn't it?
Back to trading: The market continues to make its way to 1400- HEAD resistance. If the S&P can close above this, we got some upside to go. This remind me of 1998, when the Fed lower rate to save LTCM - the market then have an unprecedented rally for 2 years. Could we be in the midst of a similar rally? The S&P chart show recent double bottoms. What's the next shoe to drop? We know housing is crap, we know earnings are shrinking, we know unemployment isn't getting any better, the war in Iraq is costing more, the dollar is weak....We know all that already....what's next?!!?!?!?
Thursday, March 20, 2008
The geek, the dork and the nerd...is me
NLV: $14,533
New Position: Long 4 Apr 08 Strike 5 BSC Put @ 1.35
Being the geek/dork/nerd that I am, instead of getting drunk at some bar, or club, I am home looking over Bear Stearns 10-K with my excel ready to go. As you can see, I've put on a position on BSC. And this is the time to analyze why BSC shouldn't be trading at this price, or should it?
Assumed that Bear Stearns did in fact have to write down $11.5 bil worth of asset- which would wipe out the equity portion as it did. On top of that there is $30 billion Fed loan backing $67 billion of already written down "bad" assets. JPM, which is to buy this bank, is effectively taking risk on only $37 billions of assets. Not bad for a bank that has $156 bil market cap. $37 billion with probably $10 billion + upside on top of $30 bil Fed back loan- make this the best corporate take over of the century.
This deal is engineered so that NO ONE can duplicate it. Who is willing/can to take on $67 billions of risk without any financing? In a perfectly fine credit market, this would be no problem- but that is not the case here. Companies are scrambling for financings- which is what causes this "collapse" in the first place.
The biggest question remains- what causes a $11 billions write down overnight? Alan Schwartz said the bank is fine and couple days later- $11 billions - GONE. That's a 14% write down on the assumed illiquid asset (Total Asset- Cash). If your asset has 14% default rate, how did you get investment grade ratings from S&P and Moody's in the first place? This is rather strange.
On top of that, Jimmy Cayne is also looking for a different suitor. So it means he disagree with Alan Schwartz over the price/worth of Bear Stearns. Every idiot shareholders can argue about how much BSC really worth- but only Jimmy Cayne out of all of them know for sure- he has access to insider info, he knows how much BSC assets are really worth- Why did Jimmy Cayne challenge a decision Alan Schwartz made if he doesn't think the assets didn't really suffer a $11 billion writedown? This boggles my mind.
New Position: Long 4 Apr 08 Strike 5 BSC Put @ 1.35
Being the geek/dork/nerd that I am, instead of getting drunk at some bar, or club, I am home looking over Bear Stearns 10-K with my excel ready to go. As you can see, I've put on a position on BSC. And this is the time to analyze why BSC shouldn't be trading at this price, or should it?
Assumed that Bear Stearns did in fact have to write down $11.5 bil worth of asset- which would wipe out the equity portion as it did. On top of that there is $30 billion Fed loan backing $67 billion of already written down "bad" assets. JPM, which is to buy this bank, is effectively taking risk on only $37 billions of assets. Not bad for a bank that has $156 bil market cap. $37 billion with probably $10 billion + upside on top of $30 bil Fed back loan- make this the best corporate take over of the century.
This deal is engineered so that NO ONE can duplicate it. Who is willing/can to take on $67 billions of risk without any financing? In a perfectly fine credit market, this would be no problem- but that is not the case here. Companies are scrambling for financings- which is what causes this "collapse" in the first place.
The biggest question remains- what causes a $11 billions write down overnight? Alan Schwartz said the bank is fine and couple days later- $11 billions - GONE. That's a 14% write down on the assumed illiquid asset (Total Asset- Cash). If your asset has 14% default rate, how did you get investment grade ratings from S&P and Moody's in the first place? This is rather strange.
On top of that, Jimmy Cayne is also looking for a different suitor. So it means he disagree with Alan Schwartz over the price/worth of Bear Stearns. Every idiot shareholders can argue about how much BSC really worth- but only Jimmy Cayne out of all of them know for sure- he has access to insider info, he knows how much BSC assets are really worth- Why did Jimmy Cayne challenge a decision Alan Schwartz made if he doesn't think the assets didn't really suffer a $11 billion writedown? This boggles my mind.
$10,000 deposit and day trading
NLV: $22,521.19
So my account showed the $10k that I transferred yesterday. Nice, more buying power.
So I began my day trading by shorting the sp500. i was up $350ish. decided to close my position and msg yin. go back to check and shit, my NLV is fucking moving! instead of closing my position, i bought another short and was like whoa. lucky for me sp500 continued down and i was up about $550. i decided that's it for today. but i got greedy and started trading again. shorted sp500, and then the chart showed a breakout upwards and it started jetting up. i quickly closed my position and i basically day traded a bit to earn my money back. towards 2pm, i had about 2 open shorts and covered just enough for a tidy $312.50 net profit. checked back later and sp500 rallies. i think it was the Fed:
might short on monday. tomorrow's good friday. no trading; it will be a slow day to pass.
i'll post trades tonight.
edit:
trades
So my account showed the $10k that I transferred yesterday. Nice, more buying power.
So I began my day trading by shorting the sp500. i was up $350ish. decided to close my position and msg yin. go back to check and shit, my NLV is fucking moving! instead of closing my position, i bought another short and was like whoa. lucky for me sp500 continued down and i was up about $550. i decided that's it for today. but i got greedy and started trading again. shorted sp500, and then the chart showed a breakout upwards and it started jetting up. i quickly closed my position and i basically day traded a bit to earn my money back. towards 2pm, i had about 2 open shorts and covered just enough for a tidy $312.50 net profit. checked back later and sp500 rallies. i think it was the Fed:
good thing i stopped trading after that.2:35 pm : The major indices climb to their best levels of the session. The New York Fed has announced modifications to its new Term Securities Lending Facility (TSFL). The TSFL auctions will now allow schedule 2 collateral, instead of the schedule 1 collateral previously proposed. Schedule 2 collateral will now include collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) and AAA rated commercial mortgage-backed securities
In other words, the Fed will be lending banks highly liquid Treasury securities in exchange for less liquid assets. Banks will now be able to use a wider range of collateral than previously announced. The first auction will take place on March 27.DJ30 +202.60 NASDAQ +36.41 SP500 +21.77 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1116/1660/1.90 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1004/2120/1.77 bln
might short on monday. tomorrow's good friday. no trading; it will be a slow day to pass.
i'll post trades tonight.
edit:
trades
| 3/20/2008 11:38:12 AM | FUTURE | BUY | /ESM8 | 50 | FUTURE | $1,306.50 | |||||
| 3/20/2008 11:36:04 AM | FUTURE | BUY | /ESM8 | 50 | FUTURE | $1,308.00 | |||||
| 3/20/2008 10:11:57 AM | FUTURE | BUY | /ESM8 | 50 | FUTURE | $1,312.00 | |||||
| 3/20/2008 9:54:16 AM | FUTURE | SELL | /ESM8 | 50 | FUTURE | $1,313.50 | |||||
| 3/20/2008 9:22:19 AM | FUTURE | SELL | /ESM8 | 50 | FUTURE | $1,309.50 | |||||
| 3/20/2008 9:15:34 AM | FUTURE | SELL | /ESM8 | 50 | FUTURE | $1,307.25 | |||||
| 3/20/2008 9:00:44 AM | FUTURE | BUY | /ESM8 | 50 | FUTURE | $1,308.00 | |||||
| 3/20/2008 8:54:34 AM | FUTURE | SELL | /ESM8 | 50 | FUTURE | $1,302.00 | |||||
| 3/20/2008 8:42:05 AM | FUTURE | BUY | /ESM8 | 50 | FUTURE | $1,297.00 | |||||
| 3/20/2008 8:40:52 AM | FUTURE | SELL | /ESM8 | 50 | FUTURE | $1,298.50 | |||||
| 3/20/2008 8:30:26 AM | FUTURE | SELL | /ESM8 | 50 | FUTURE | $1,304.00 | |||||
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
screw citibank
so i was down about $3,700 this morning and i got an email for a margin call! it was only for $300, but if i didn't wire the money today they will close my position and suspend my futures trading for a day. so it was a fucking mess trying to get citibank to fucking wire some money over to my broker. i was so fustrated. i am about to open another bank account.
in other news, the sp500 swung back down in the afternoon saving me from posting margin (i didn't find out till much later). so i ran a couple of errands and im sitting in front of the trading screen at 4:55pm and put in my buy order to cover my shorts.
today:
Sold WBT BOT +2 /ESM8 @1301.00 CME
netting me a nice $537.50 for a day's work. it was damn stressful though.
Net liquidation value: $12,325.69
also, i'm depositing another $10,000 to the account. no more margin calls.
in other news, the sp500 swung back down in the afternoon saving me from posting margin (i didn't find out till much later). so i ran a couple of errands and im sitting in front of the trading screen at 4:55pm and put in my buy order to cover my shorts.
today:
Sold WBT BOT +2 /ESM8 @1301.00 CME
netting me a nice $537.50 for a day's work. it was damn stressful though.
Net liquidation value: $12,325.69
also, i'm depositing another $10,000 to the account. no more margin calls.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
03/18/2008
NLV: $14,542
Open position: 100 S @6.06 and 100 KRY @4.02
Two light penny stocks and rest is all cash. Wrote 20 VIX Apr 08 30 calls @2.07 avg price and bot back @ 1.30 this morning. The trade netted me a nice $1400 or so. A nice profit for short period. As Borat would have said it, "I likeeeeeee!"
The pre-clearance process at my company hampered my ability to trade. I would put in a request for approval at 8:30-8:50 A.M. The approval wouldn't get to me until 10:00 A.M. - which is really retarded because I would miss out on some good trading opportunities - such as closing gap trades, those usually disappear in the first half hour of trading.
I see that tjy is taking quite a beating on those short ES minis. I would probably go nut if I ever risk 20% of my account overnight. The market is in the midst of a furious battles b/w the bulls and the bears. The bears could not force the market to close below 1260-1270's area. Breaking those levels are critical for the bears. Either way, this volatile market has provided some excellent trading opportunities. I haven't seen stocks swing more than 3% since the tech bubble hay days. Volatility is back and its the new game in town- I love it.
Open position: 100 S @6.06 and 100 KRY @4.02
Two light penny stocks and rest is all cash. Wrote 20 VIX Apr 08 30 calls @2.07 avg price and bot back @ 1.30 this morning. The trade netted me a nice $1400 or so. A nice profit for short period. As Borat would have said it, "I likeeeeeee!"
The pre-clearance process at my company hampered my ability to trade. I would put in a request for approval at 8:30-8:50 A.M. The approval wouldn't get to me until 10:00 A.M. - which is really retarded because I would miss out on some good trading opportunities - such as closing gap trades, those usually disappear in the first half hour of trading.
I see that tjy is taking quite a beating on those short ES minis. I would probably go nut if I ever risk 20% of my account overnight. The market is in the midst of a furious battles b/w the bulls and the bears. The bears could not force the market to close below 1260-1270's area. Breaking those levels are critical for the bears. Either way, this volatile market has provided some excellent trading opportunities. I haven't seen stocks swing more than 3% since the tech bubble hay days. Volatility is back and its the new game in town- I love it.
sp500 index futures
fed announces 75 bp rate cut today. i short 2 e-mini s&p 500 index futures, june 2008
today:
SOLD -1 /ESM8 @1305.25 CME
SOLD -1 /ESM8 @1307.50 CME
swings down -800, then goes back down, then swings up +800. i head out for school leaving my position opens. checks at school and bam i'm down -2,600. I go to class and check back after market closes: down -2,800.
I'm still very bearish about the markets and I sold off a few ETFs on another account. If I had more buying power, I would short -2 more contracts of sp500s.
we'll see how the overseas market looks tonight.
today:
SOLD -1 /ESM8 @1305.25 CME
SOLD -1 /ESM8 @1307.50 CME
swings down -800, then goes back down, then swings up +800. i head out for school leaving my position opens. checks at school and bam i'm down -2,600. I go to class and check back after market closes: down -2,800.
I'm still very bearish about the markets and I sold off a few ETFs on another account. If I had more buying power, I would short -2 more contracts of sp500s.
we'll see how the overseas market looks tonight.
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Week recap 03/15/08
Relatively hectic week in the market.
Net Liquidation Value: $13173
Position: Long 100 S@ 6.05, Long 100 KRY @4.21
My GS short position was liquidated for 158/sh. The Fed meeting next week along with earnings make me relatively uncomfortable holding this stock short. Afterall, the analysts already started to downgrade the stock- so the expectation for GS is set lower at current stock price. The risk to reward for holding out is no longer favorable.
Lately, there has been more LONG ideas than SHORT ideas coming from me. It is perhaps too early to call a "bottom" in this market. But some stocks already appear to be relatively "cheap". On top of that, we already have most of the recession expectation build in. The risk to reward on playing on short side right now is about 50-50 IMHO. There will be more stocks collapsing in prices, but the selection has to be more careful compared to 3-6 months ago.
And whoever bought 55,000 BSC $30 March puts, he/she is going to jail. That was just plain stupid.
Net Liquidation Value: $13173
Position: Long 100 S@ 6.05, Long 100 KRY @4.21
My GS short position was liquidated for 158/sh. The Fed meeting next week along with earnings make me relatively uncomfortable holding this stock short. Afterall, the analysts already started to downgrade the stock- so the expectation for GS is set lower at current stock price. The risk to reward for holding out is no longer favorable.
Lately, there has been more LONG ideas than SHORT ideas coming from me. It is perhaps too early to call a "bottom" in this market. But some stocks already appear to be relatively "cheap". On top of that, we already have most of the recession expectation build in. The risk to reward on playing on short side right now is about 50-50 IMHO. There will be more stocks collapsing in prices, but the selection has to be more careful compared to 3-6 months ago.
And whoever bought 55,000 BSC $30 March puts, he/she is going to jail. That was just plain stupid.
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