Short Idea: LULU Morons!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LULU&t=1y

These guys sell yoga mats and other type of accessories. The chart is ugly, the business (retail) is ugly. What's not to hate?!

Short LULU!

$15700

Cover 10 XHB @ 2.55 a piece- net $90 or so... whoop-de-do

AIG is oversold + the upgrade from Morgan's analyst helped boost its stock price. AIG was up over 4% on pre-market. Only to see half of the gains vanished by the close of the day. I'm breakeven on the AIG trade and down a bit on LEH.

Hurricane season starts officially on June 1st. Let see how we holding out this year. Never before do I think the insurers would be in trouble- especially the Big Dog like AIG. But stupid people do stupid things- one of their subsidiary is short massive amount of Credit Default Swaps- which caused losses of $9 billion last quarter. With more loan defaults and downgrade of mortgage back securities products, I think AIG has to take more pain next quarter. They are already tight on capital without any natural disaster. One major hurricane is all it take to tip them over at the brink of disaster. Maybe the Federal Reserve will consider open its discount window to the insurer then?

NET LIQ VALUE: $30,103.07

SHLD missed earnings yesterday. More gloom and doom in the housing market. All time high.

EXEC TIME	SPREAD	SIDE	QTY	SYMBOL	SPC	EXP	STRIKE	TYPE	PRICE	NET PRICE
5/30/2008 9:21:01 AM	SINGLE	BUY	+5	SHLD	100	Jun 08	95	CALL	$0.40	$0.40

covered 5 options for SHLD.

short, long, short....I'm all over the place

New position:

+2 LEH July 40 strike Put @ 6.25

+8 AIG July 40 strike Put @ 5.25

Old:

-10 XHB Dec 19 Put @ 2.65

+100 S @ 6.06

+100 KRY @ 4.23


NLV: $16,100

Sears Posts Unexpected Loss; Costco Profit Exceeds Estimates

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFvdjFm32P4M&refer=home

"Sears fell $3.51, or 3.9 percent, to $85.85 at 7 a.m. New York time in trading before the Nasdaq Stock Market opened. The shares declined 12 percent this year through yesterday."

Uh...sweet? But as of right now, the bid x ask is at 90.36 x 90.86, so I'm confused...

NET LIQ VALUE: $28,591.09

EXEC TIME	SPREAD	SIDE	QTY	SYMBOL	SPC	EXP	STRIKE	TYPE	PRICE	NET PRICE
5/28/2008 2:07:17 PM	SINGLE	SELL	-5	SHLD	100	Jun 08	95	CALL	$2.30	$2.30
5/28/2008 1:34:27 PM	STOCK	BUY	+100	LEH				STOCK	$35.20	$35.20
5/28/2008 10:33:33 AM	SINGLE	SELL	-3	SHLD	100	Jun 08	100	CALL	$1.15	$1.15
5/28/2008 10:33:33 AM	SINGLE	SELL	-2	SHLD	100	Jun 08	100	CALL	$1.15	$1.15

NET LIQ VALUE: $28,550.65

New home sales data were better than expected: bullish rally. And the market thinks the housing market is picking up (and foreclosure auctions too).

Attempted two trades today:
Shorted 200 shares of LEH with an average price of $36.045.
Tried to buy a few puts for AIG, but didn't execute.

I'll try again tomorrow.

I play analyst

Sell :

Bonds (inflation is going to eat away real return, non-inflation index bonds are done)

AIG - the sneaky insurance company raise $12 billions dollar. One hurricane and AIG would be in deep doodles

LEH - holding off on those write downs huh?

LUV - fuel hedges are running out. Enjoy the $50 a barrel hedge while you can!

Hold:

FXI/EWT - China/Taiwan for long term.

PBR - The Black Gold mine.

EWZ

Buy:

TIP - iShares Lehman TIPS Bond (TIP)

NET LIQ VALUE: $29,037.16

Friday's NLV. The ES trades KILLED ME.

Studying for CFA now, so not much time left to trade. (although I'm not too concerned about passing the CFA or not.)

NLV $15700

The market continued to get pressure on downward movement. Sell in May and Go away is in effect.

New Trade:

- 5 XHB Dec 08 19 Puts.

Open Position:

-10 XHB Dec 08 19 Put
+ 5 VLO Jun 08 60 Call
+5 C June 08 12.5 Put

I'm doubling down as usual.

NET LIQ VALUE: $29,741.17

NLV $16000 + change

Sold those SPY puts for $800. Gains were offset by some bullish play on XHB. Plan to get rid of these XHB puts (sold short).

Also have some VLO June 60 calls - it has been a small losing trade...but looks like it might be turning corner. Loving the OIL bubble.

Watch List: STLD. NUE has been going around to raise money. STLD becomes such an attractive target for NUE. CRS, CMC also can be a target.

NUE has the balance sheet flexibility. Recently, NUE is looking to raise $3-4 billions in the capital market. NUE also has $700 mil cash on hand and $4.8 bil short term assets. Making a medium size acquisition of companies with market cap under $10 billion is totally feasible for Nucor. Merger for metal companies give them more bargaining power with the suppliers, cost cut on excess labor and technology that can help further increase production efficiency.

NET LIQ VALUE: $29,689.17

HD continues to drop.

All time high of $30,000+ intraday, until...

I bought 1 ES car at 1401. I'm an idiot, always getting on the wrong side of the trade.
=(

NET LIQ VALUE: $29,845.17

Missed a post last night.

HD dropped like it is hot.

+ 5 June SPY 144 Puts

Liking the afternoon price action, I bought some puts on SPY. There is actually a put expire on 4th week of the month... interesting.

NET LIQ VALUE: $28,406.18

Bought +5 HD puts August expiration $25 strike for $0.40.
HD earnings out tomorrow.



ES is killing me. I want to cover my short but... I can't psychologically do it! damn me.

NET LIQ VALUE: $28,418.68

consumer confidence hits 28 yr low.

NET LIQ VALUE: $28,468.68

HD rises, down $150 more/total open PNL ($612.50)

SOLD -1 /ESM8 @1413.75 CME
holding overnight. ($412.50) at the moment

NET LIQ VALUE: $29,165.18

traded ES for +$50. HD went up again.

NET LIQ VALUE: $29,221.18

Wal-mart is rumored to come out with good earnings tomorrow. Retailers rise. One headline from Bloomberg says WMT may have taken market share from Sears and Macy's. SHLD rose today... makes no sense.

NET LIQ VALUE: $29,496.18

SHLD options continue to fall in value. nice.

EXEC TIME	SPREAD	SIDE	QTY	SYMBOL	SPC	EXP	STRIKE	TYPE	PRICE	NET PRICE
5/9/2008 9:24:54 AM	SINGLE	BUY	+5	HD	100	Aug 08	40	PUT	$12.00	$12.00

Bought +5 Home Depot puts for $12. Risking up to $6,000 to bet that Home Depot will fall in value. I bought (in paper account) +5 Lowe's puts on 5/1 and it is currently up $1,000+. So let's see how this HD trade will work out.

NET LIQ VALUE: $29,391.18

No trades. Tried to short McDonald puts but didn't execute.

NET LIQ VALUE: $29,356.18

All time high. SHLD drops some more and I traded the ES for +$50. Sold BBY naked calls for $125.

NET LIQ VALUE: $29,134.68

Sears Holdings price target cut by Deutsche Bank, drops to $95. woot!

NET LIQ VALUE: $28,672.18

Mostly paper gains, SHLD coming back down. If it comes back up to $103 range I will buy puts on it.

Traded ES and lost $75 realized for it.

New High. Where to now?

The Bulls have won the battle. Look for a temporary sell off.

NET LIQ VALUE: $27,939.18

paper losses.

SHLD shot up to $103.22, let's see how it will open on Monday

NLV $15560

Back in the game! Sold out my USO puts for a nice profit. Account hits new high.