what a sweet day.
shorted 1 ES at $1405.25 right after the fed cut announcement and placed a cover call at $1399.00. It hit and grossed me $312.50 in less than two minutes. SWEET.
and my options are coming back. SHLD's day pnl: $625.00
Happy day.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $27,553.21
No trades today. SHLD traded up to $103 though. That got me a little nervous. I noticed that the mark of the options didn't move in sync with the underlying. That was very interesting. Maybe some insider trading or it's not liquid enough. I should really learn how to price options.
Monday, April 28, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $27,643.21
Not much went on today. I thought of shorting some more SHLD but decided against it; I will after the Fed announcement this coming Wednesday. SBUX report earnings on Wed too.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
NLV $12900
Took a massive beating this week.
Long 20 contracts put May 89 USO
All eggs in one basket...
Long 20 contracts put May 89 USO
All eggs in one basket...
Friday, April 25, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $27,985.72
As expected, MSFT tanked and my call option is pretty much worthless. I sold a 5 calls for SHLD @ $1.20 May $105.
BBY is $45, creeping up to my $47.50 strike naked calls.
| 4/25/2008 8:37:59 AM | SINGLE | SELL | SHLD | 100 | May 08 | 105 | CALL | $1.20 | $1.20 | ||
BBY is $45, creeping up to my $47.50 strike naked calls.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $28,455.72
Trades (excluding futures):
Covered my URBN short and realized several hundred in losses.
Covered my RIMM today at $0.90 to realize $75. good thing I did that. RIMM jumped to the $123-125 range in the mid-day.
Bought 5 MSFT calls hoping that they beat earnings tonight (which they did). But it is trading down after markets because they are lowering their forecasts for Q3. It's only $200 exposure, so that's a good cheap lesson learned. Will probably hold it to expiration and see how it goes.
| 4/24/2008 10:56:31 AM | SINGLE | BUY | MSFT | 100 | May 08 | 34 | CALL | $0.40 | $0.40 | ||
| 4/24/2008 8:40:03 AM | SINGLE | BUY | RIMM | 100 | May 08 | 140 | CALL | $0.90 | $0.90 | ||
| 4/24/2008 8:37:48 AM | STOCK | BUY | URBN | STOCK | $32.50 | $32.50 | |||||
Covered my URBN short and realized several hundred in losses.
Covered my RIMM today at $0.90 to realize $75. good thing I did that. RIMM jumped to the $123-125 range in the mid-day.
Bought 5 MSFT calls hoping that they beat earnings tonight (which they did). But it is trading down after markets because they are lowering their forecasts for Q3. It's only $200 exposure, so that's a good cheap lesson learned. Will probably hold it to expiration and see how it goes.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $28,502.23
scene: I'm in Atlanta's airport connecting to a flight for Cancun. I call my broker and SHLD shot up to about $103-104 on goo d earnings from other co's. I'm pussying out and told him to cover my 5 April naked calls at $3.7. I sold them at $2.10. So, 500 x (3.7-2.1) = $800 loss. And I find out later that it opened higher on monday then retreated to below the strike of $100. I'm a fucking idiot. SHLD is trading today afterhours at $95. I could've been up $6,000 on this baby.
Lesson learned. ;(
Sold 5 naked calls of RIMM at $1.05
Option holdings:
I'm looking to sell a few naked calls on Blockbuster.
Lesson learned. ;(
Sold 5 naked calls of RIMM at $1.05
| EXEC TIME | SPREAD | SIDE | QTY | SYMBOL | SPC | EXP | STRIKE | TYPE | PRICE | NET PRICE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/23/2008 9:08:58 AM | SINGLE | SELL | RIMM | 100 | May 08 | 140 | CALL | $1.05 | $1.05 | ||
Option holdings:
| BBYFW | BBY 100 JUN 08 47.5 CALL | -5 | $0.95 | ($475.00) |
| KTQFY | SHLD 100 JUN 08 130 CALL | -5 | $0.45 | ($225.00) |
| URQRX | URBN 100 JUN 08 22.5 PUT | 5 | $0.15 | $75.00 |
| SQXEV | SBUX 100 MAY 08 21 CALL | -5 | $0.04 | ($20.00) |
| RULEH | RIMM 100 MAY 08 140 CALL | -5 | $0.845 | ($422.50 |
I'm looking to sell a few naked calls on Blockbuster.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
NLV $14583
Traded some ES. NLV slowly marched back up. No setup this week. Market is closing in on new highs. Break thru 1400, we are set up for a nice bull run.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $28,254.75
haven't traded much lately. really busy at work.
two new options positions:
option positions:
two new options positions:
| 4/16/2008 2:36:43 PM | SINGLE | SELL | SHLD | 100 | Apr 08 | 105 | CALL | $0.40 | $0.40 | ||
| 4/16/2008 12:50:50 PM | SINGLE | SELL | SHLD | 100 | Apr 08 | 100 | CALL | $2.10 | $2.10 | ||
option positions:
| OPRA | DESCRIPTION | CONTRACTS | PRICE | MKT VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBYFW | BBY 100 JUN 08 47.5 CALL | -5 | $0.875 | ($437.50) |
| KTQDT | SHLD 100 APR 08 100 CALL | -5 | $2.95 | ($1,475.00) |
| KTQDA | SHLD 100 APR 08 105 CALL | -4 | $0.55 | ($220.00) |
| KTQFY | SHLD 100 JUN 08 130 CALL | -5 | $1.15 | ($575.00) |
| URQRX | URBN 100 JUN 08 22.5 PUT | 5 | $0.25 | $125.00 |
| SQXEV | SBUX 100 MAY 08 21 CALL | -5 | $0.065 | ($32.50) |
Monday, April 14, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $29,045.27
i had an exam today. didn't really feel the vibe trading. i stopped with a $200 loss on the ES. shorted 100 shares of URBN by MISTAKE!
good thing my naked calls are going black.
good thing my naked calls are going black.
WTF spike?
wth just happened? i was just short this too and good thing i covered.
Okay, so retail sales came out @ 8:30am. beated estimates of 0.0% to 0.2%
it's already trending back down to 1327.
Saturday, April 12, 2008
"Dude, where is my return on investment?"
Let's play this game call "ANALYST"
Buy? Sell? or Hold?
SELL SELL SELL?
Friday, April 11, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $29,150.47
So my short came in today. GE misses its earnings expectations and revenues fall short. Consumer confidence also short of expectations. Earned more than $4,000 today.
Good day all!
Good day all!
NLV $14300
I'm lagging return big time. It's time for me add more gun powder to my account. I'm going to add $5000 to the account. Next week. I'm gunning for $10k profit by year end.
Perfect SH set up, I let it go and not get back in. How stupid.
Perfect SH set up, I let it go and not get back in. How stupid.
S&P futures vs fair value: -14.4
quick morning update. got to the office and the ES is down 14 points. tanked because of GE earnings.
GE Profit Declines, Misses Estimates, as Credit Freeze Forces Writedowns General Electric Co. reported its first decline in quarterly profit since 2003, missing analyst estimates with a 12 percent drop in earnings as a freeze-up in credit markets blocked asset sales and forced it to write down the value of investments.
covered 2 ES shorts. currently up about $3770 for the day. waiting for consumer sentiment to come out @ 10am. i think it'll drop more from there. 80% of the US economy is driven by consumer spending.
also forgot to note yesterday: i sold -5 naked call options on Sears (SHLD) for $1.80
GE Profit Declines, Misses Estimates, as Credit Freeze Forces Writedowns General Electric Co. reported its first decline in quarterly profit since 2003, missing analyst estimates with a 12 percent drop in earnings as a freeze-up in credit markets blocked asset sales and forced it to write down the value of investments.
covered 2 ES shorts. currently up about $3770 for the day. waiting for consumer sentiment to come out @ 10am. i think it'll drop more from there. 80% of the US economy is driven by consumer spending.
also forgot to note yesterday: i sold -5 naked call options on Sears (SHLD) for $1.80
Thursday, April 10, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $24,627.48
market rallied today based on a mixed news. good earnings or upward revision of earnings for companies like GE, Walmart, and tech companies. Goldman Sach's CEO Blankfein also agreed with Morgan Stanley's CEO John Mack that the recession is closer to the end than it is to the beginning. I however feel very different. If they really knew what was going on, would they be in this credit meltdown? Consumer sentiment comes out tomorrow at 10am. There is already an article on Bloomberg saying it will be pretty bad.
Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Probably Fell to 16-Year Low on Jobs
Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Probably Fell to 16-Year Low on Jobs
By Courtney Schlisserman
April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers sank to a 16-year low this month as the labor market continued to weaken and gasoline prices rose, economists said ahead of a private report today.
I am short overnight four ES contracts. We'll see how it ends up.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $27,461.48
what a sweet sweet day.
bad news all over.
IMF predicts $945 bn in writedowns. co's are missing earnings. etc etc.
covered all my ES shorts. so now i can sleep a little more sound.
naked calls are growing blacker lol.
here's a quick analysis i did on my returns:
bad news all over.
IMF predicts $945 bn in writedowns. co's are missing earnings. etc etc.
covered all my ES shorts. so now i can sleep a little more sound.
naked calls are growing blacker lol.
here's a quick analysis i did on my returns:
| 12/20/2007 | ($10,000.00) |
| 3/20/2008 | ($10,000.00) |
| 4/2/2008 | ($5,000.00) |
| 4/9/2008 | $27,461.48 |
| annualized irr | 85.09% |
| IRR | 4.34% |
| Net | $2,461.48 |
Monday, April 7, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $26,389.98
same old. my naked calls are coming back into the black. shorted a ES and it shot up. left a limit order to cover at 1.50 under. that hit later in the noon.
A few news headlines:
Alcoa Profit Drops 54%, Falls Short of Estimates on Rising Commodity Costs
Advanced Micro Misses Its Revenue Forecast, Plans to Eliminate 10% of Jobs
TPG and other PE firms plan to inject $5bn into WaMu
A few news headlines:
Alcoa Profit Drops 54%, Falls Short of Estimates on Rising Commodity Costs
Advanced Micro Misses Its Revenue Forecast, Plans to Eliminate 10% of Jobs
TPG and other PE firms plan to inject $5bn into WaMu
| Consumer Credit - M/M change | |
| Consensus | $ 5.3 B |
| Actual | $ 5.1 B |
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Chinese oil
"We Chinese no pay twice for gas!"In my other blog, I've mentioned in November that PetroChina is way overpriced. (and some what skeptical of GOOG @ $700). I'm officially patting me-self on the back.
http://credoip.blogspot.com/2007/11/whole-lot-of-irrational-exuberance.html
Time to be bearish?
A nice buy-the-dip/support level trade here. SH = Inverse S&P 500 return x 2.@1360-70, the risk/ reward of shorting the S&P become favorable. I'll start to look for levels to short into the ES.
The employment news was just bad. The market doesn't seem to be reacting too much to it. All we need is some bad news to send this market down the spiral.
| Apr 07 | 15:00 | Consumer Credit | Feb | $5.0B | $6.0B | $6.9B | ||
| Apr 08 | 10:00 | Pending Home Sales | Feb | -0.5% | 0.0% | |||
| Apr 08 | 14:00 | FOMC Minutes | Mar 18 | |||||
| Apr 09 | 10:00 | Wholesale Inventories | Feb | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | ||
| Apr 09 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 04/05 | NA | NA | 7317K | ||
| Apr 10 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 04/05 | 380K | NA | 407K | ||
| Apr 10 | 08:30 | Trade Balance | Feb | -$57.6B | -$57.4B | -$58.2B | ||
| Apr 10 | 14:00 | Treasury Budget | Mar | -$70.0B | -$80.0B | -$96.3B | ||
| Apr 11 | 08:30 | Export Prices ex-ag. | Mar | NA | NA | 0.5% | ||
| Apr 11 | 08:30 | Import Prices ex-oil | Mar | NA | NA | 0.6% | ||
| Apr 11 | 10:00 | Mich Sentiment-Prel. | Apr | 68.0 | 69.4 | 69.5 |
Pending home sales and FOMC will be the market mover of the week. Monday would likely be a slow day. I'm looking for the market to get volatile after Tuesday. Volatility = Opportunity.
What's the rate cut expectation by the way?
Thursday, April 3, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $25,459.49
Capital injection came in and reflected in price. Not much trading today, but there were some big news. Jobless claims came out worse than expected. From Bloomberg:
George Soros also spoke out about things haven't been this bad since the Great Depression (late 1920's). Markets tanked pre-market open and at the market open, but rallied at 10am. I believe this is because investors expect the Fed to bail them out. I think commodity prices and companies related (eg. Exxon) also drove the market higher. I was sort of bullish on the dollar, but now I just want to short it.
Made two dumb trades that happened because I had default futures order at 2 cars, when I meant to do one car. Lesson learned.
Employment situation supposed to come out today at 8:30am. We'll see how that goes.
New Claims - Level Consensus 366 K Actual 407 - Definition
- New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Do Investors Care?
- Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.
- There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look out for inflationary pressures.
- By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
- Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
George Soros also spoke out about things haven't been this bad since the Great Depression (late 1920's). Markets tanked pre-market open and at the market open, but rallied at 10am. I believe this is because investors expect the Fed to bail them out. I think commodity prices and companies related (eg. Exxon) also drove the market higher. I was sort of bullish on the dollar, but now I just want to short it.
Made two dumb trades that happened because I had default futures order at 2 cars, when I meant to do one car. Lesson learned.
Employment situation supposed to come out today at 8:30am. We'll see how that goes.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
$5,000 capital injection, NET LIQ VALUE: $20,717.99
Liquidity crisis!
added another $5,000 to the account. another margin call ;(. funds aren't reflected yet. this is a convo between me and yin last night:
yang: im just worried about margin calls tom
yin: damn man
yin: whats ur avg price
yin: u only took 5pt
yang: yea
yang: lol
yin: thats some dangerous shit dude
yin: u not afriad at all?
yang: na
yin: jesus
yin: what if it goes against u
yin: what would u do
yin: WWTD
zyang: liquidity crisis
yang: lol
yang: prob inject 5k?
yang: ask for some foreign investments
yang: sell some convertibles like leh an dhope it oversubscribes?
yang: lol
anyway while i was asleep at 6am, the ES dropped to about 1363, below my avg of 64.5. missed my cover chance! it opened against me this am at work, i was quickly down about 1 grand for the day. i believe i was down almost 2 grand too. then in the late afternoon started dropping. i covered one contract (limit buy) at 63. that was the low for the day so i caught that one nicely. news today: paulson argues that the recession won't be that bad; bernanke warns of a possible recession. nice contradictions.
BBY's earnings were not as bad as expected due to laptop sales. opened up to 45.8, from previous day's 43.47. scared that crap out of me. 1) i have a NAKED call on bby, and 2) shows that the US economy is freaking resilient. good thing that sh*t traded back down to 43.94
anyway im still short 3 ES overnight again. hope it drops a good 10 points so ill earn a few grand.
added another $5,000 to the account. another margin call ;(. funds aren't reflected yet. this is a convo between me and yin last night:
yang: im just worried about margin calls tom
yin: damn man
yin: whats ur avg price
yin: u only took 5pt
yang: yea
yang: lol
yin: thats some dangerous shit dude
yin: u not afriad at all?
yang: na
yin: jesus
yin: what if it goes against u
yin: what would u do
yin: WWTD
zyang: liquidity crisis
yang: lol
yang: prob inject 5k?
yang: ask for some foreign investments
yang: sell some convertibles like leh an dhope it oversubscribes?
yang: lol
anyway while i was asleep at 6am, the ES dropped to about 1363, below my avg of 64.5. missed my cover chance! it opened against me this am at work, i was quickly down about 1 grand for the day. i believe i was down almost 2 grand too. then in the late afternoon started dropping. i covered one contract (limit buy) at 63. that was the low for the day so i caught that one nicely. news today: paulson argues that the recession won't be that bad; bernanke warns of a possible recession. nice contradictions.
BBY's earnings were not as bad as expected due to laptop sales. opened up to 45.8, from previous day's 43.47. scared that crap out of me. 1) i have a NAKED call on bby, and 2) shows that the US economy is freaking resilient. good thing that sh*t traded back down to 43.94
anyway im still short 3 ES overnight again. hope it drops a good 10 points so ill earn a few grand.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
NET LIQ VALUE: $20,258.49
back to square one. what a crazy day.
began trading 2 contracts per trade.
i was shorting and covering on a bull day.
early am, i was +$212 but decided to earn up to $500 or so. quickly blew me back down to -80 - +160. then things got really wild and i shorted and i didnt put a stop loss. i felt that the market would slip near the close. didn't go that way and decided to short two more cars. no way the market would rally nearly 4% on no change in fundamentals. as yin said, LEH's issue was oversubscribed and the ISM was better than expected but still. there were PLENTY of bad news, eg. UBS, MER writedowns, more writedowns expected to come, etc. a interesting tidbit is that the SEC has allowed the banks to mark to model aka mark to whatever you want.
so im down a bit over a grand over the 4 es shorts (which i am still holding; hope market drops)
BBY naked call option dropped $238
URBN put option dropped $75
began trading 2 contracts per trade.
i was shorting and covering on a bull day.
early am, i was +$212 but decided to earn up to $500 or so. quickly blew me back down to -80 - +160. then things got really wild and i shorted and i didnt put a stop loss. i felt that the market would slip near the close. didn't go that way and decided to short two more cars. no way the market would rally nearly 4% on no change in fundamentals. as yin said, LEH's issue was oversubscribed and the ISM was better than expected but still. there were PLENTY of bad news, eg. UBS, MER writedowns, more writedowns expected to come, etc. a interesting tidbit is that the SEC has allowed the banks to mark to model aka mark to whatever you want.
so im down a bit over a grand over the 4 es shorts (which i am still holding; hope market drops)
BBY naked call option dropped $238
URBN put option dropped $75
| SYMBOL | DESCRIPTION | CONTRACTS | SPC | TRADE PRICE | MARK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| /ESM8 | E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures,Jun-2008,ETH | -4 | 50 | $1,364.375 | $1,369.25 |
| OPRA | DESCRIPTION | CONTRACTS | PRICE | MKT VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBYFW | BBY 100 JUN 08 47.5 CALL | -5 | $1.625 | ($812.50) |
| URQRX | URBN 100 JUN 08 22.5 PUT | 5 | $0.40 | $200.00 |
and the market rallied....
The first day of the new quarter, there are a lot of money being put to work- mutual funds and pension funds are probably buying some equity to re-balance the equity portion of their portfolios. - since equity prices have been on the decline, that portion of the portfolio is actually less than their actual allocation- so they need to buy equity to readjust.
Lehman's ability to raise money debunked many rumors and myths about the bank inability to get access to liquidity- although it is bad for the bank's existing shareholders- their shares are now more diluted.
ISM number also came out better than expected- with no bad news insight- this give an extra boost.
All three factors added up to a 400 pts in the Dow IMO.
Lehman's ability to raise money debunked many rumors and myths about the bank inability to get access to liquidity- although it is bad for the bank's existing shareholders- their shares are now more diluted.
ISM number also came out better than expected- with no bad news insight- this give an extra boost.
All three factors added up to a 400 pts in the Dow IMO.
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