Dollar rallied. Killing some of my earnings in FX. =(
On a happier note, I just found out I passed level 1 of the CFA curriculum. Woot!
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
NLV $21----
I dont know I dont care whats the exact numbers, I'm losing money temporarily.
I took today's rebound to get out of my long SSO. I believe I can get it at a lower price.
I also took today's opportunity to get short Merrill Lynch. + 5 put strike 22.5 September 08
The reason to short Merrill and their b/s CEO is because:
1. They are still patching their balance sheet. Sure most of the CDOs junks are off, but they are still facing tough economics environment. Not to mention they finance 75% of the purchase- so they are only getting ~$2 billions for something that used to be worth $30 billions. NICE TRY.
2. $8.55 billions issued at $22.5 a share- that's below market price. And you paid $2.5 billions to the Singapore to cover their losses. Merrill, who you tryna fool? FOOL!
3. To sneak into the news, a $5.7 billions write off. Net-Net Merrill, you just patched up your balance sheet.
4. That left your core business, which is to sell fancy investment vehicles and schemes to wealthy investors and charge them a nice fees. No other core businesses, just bunch of brokers and FAs. These guys better find more (stupid) wealthy people to pitch their b/s to, because you don't have an i-bank division like GS and MS. In another word, your core business is WEAK. And you sold the only business you have that's actually increasing in value - Bloomberg LP.
Price Target: $15
At $26 bucks and putting a historical P/E of 13 on your core business, you have to earn $2/sh to worth your today's price. With all the dilutions, DREAM ON FOOL!
HEY, WHO SOLD BUNCH OF SHARES BEFORE THE CAPITAL RAISING ANNOUNCEMENT?!!? (DOWN 9% THE DAY BEFORE THE ANNOUNCEMENT). NO INSIDER TRADING HUH??! SEC can BLOW ME.
I took today's rebound to get out of my long SSO. I believe I can get it at a lower price.
I also took today's opportunity to get short Merrill Lynch. + 5 put strike 22.5 September 08
The reason to short Merrill and their b/s CEO is because:
1. They are still patching their balance sheet. Sure most of the CDOs junks are off, but they are still facing tough economics environment. Not to mention they finance 75% of the purchase- so they are only getting ~$2 billions for something that used to be worth $30 billions. NICE TRY.
2. $8.55 billions issued at $22.5 a share- that's below market price. And you paid $2.5 billions to the Singapore to cover their losses. Merrill, who you tryna fool? FOOL!
3. To sneak into the news, a $5.7 billions write off. Net-Net Merrill, you just patched up your balance sheet.
4. That left your core business, which is to sell fancy investment vehicles and schemes to wealthy investors and charge them a nice fees. No other core businesses, just bunch of brokers and FAs. These guys better find more (stupid) wealthy people to pitch their b/s to, because you don't have an i-bank division like GS and MS. In another word, your core business is WEAK. And you sold the only business you have that's actually increasing in value - Bloomberg LP.
Price Target: $15
At $26 bucks and putting a historical P/E of 13 on your core business, you have to earn $2/sh to worth your today's price. With all the dilutions, DREAM ON FOOL!
HEY, WHO SOLD BUNCH OF SHARES BEFORE THE CAPITAL RAISING ANNOUNCEMENT?!!? (DOWN 9% THE DAY BEFORE THE ANNOUNCEMENT). NO INSIDER TRADING HUH??! SEC can BLOW ME.
Saturday, July 26, 2008
NLV $22000?
Another $5k should hit. Didn't bother checking the account.
Same position 400 SSO and 5 puts on AAPL.
Why short AAPL?
1. Steve Jobs health- sure his cancer is not acting up again, but he just had a surgery to fix a "bug".
2. Low guidance- we know AAPL likes to give b/s guidance. But tight margin and lower growth rate...the street has an estimate 24% over what AAPL is giving. So Apple must beat guidance by 24%+...not an easy feat at this time of the year.
3. Technical- lower highs, it looks like the stock is rolling over.
Note: I have 4 more weeks to prove AAPL is not worth at $160.
Same position 400 SSO and 5 puts on AAPL.
Why short AAPL?
1. Steve Jobs health- sure his cancer is not acting up again, but he just had a surgery to fix a "bug".
2. Low guidance- we know AAPL likes to give b/s guidance. But tight margin and lower growth rate...the street has an estimate 24% over what AAPL is giving. So Apple must beat guidance by 24%+...not an easy feat at this time of the year.
3. Technical- lower highs, it looks like the stock is rolling over.
Note: I have 4 more weeks to prove AAPL is not worth at $160.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
$35,593.34
What a bad day. My sleeping schedule is so off and I woke up late. Then VMW recovered along with the market and I'm down 60 cents on the options. Dollar is rallying as well due to oil prices going down, interest rates may be increased and recent market rally!
I still think there's a lot of room for VMW to sink. So I will be holding this position and may add on later.
I still think there's a lot of room for VMW to sink. So I will be holding this position and may add on later.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
$17079
$5k got in. Have a net loss of $1k today. Down $2k on AAPL 150 Aug put. Up $1k on 400 sh of SSO. Real dumb trades. Should pare down some sizes.
$36,516.19
What a rally today!
Well, I bought 5 puts on VMW. I don't think they will meet estimates and now they are down about 14% after hours. I hope I can profit $1,000 from the options.
Well, I bought 5 puts on VMW. I don't think they will meet estimates and now they are down about 14% after hours. I hope I can profit $1,000 from the options.
| EXEC TIME | SPREAD | SIDE | QTY | SYMBOL | SPC | EXP | STRIKE | TYPE | PRICE | NET PRICE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/22/2008 2:18:11 PM | SINGLE | BUY | VMW | 100 | Sep 08 | 30 | PUT | $2.00 | $2.00 | ||
Monday, July 21, 2008
$36,589.38
MMM...shorted the ES last Friday at 57.50. went up against me pretty badly, maybe half a grand (10 points). AXP (American Express) got dumped after reporting earnings. Customers are defaulting on their CC loans... which is pretty fucking bad. That and AAPL lower forecasts dropped the ES and I covered at 50.
SWEET.
I was thinking of buying puts on AXP, but never got around to that trade. so that kind of stings a bit. I'm also thinking of doing a little risk-arb with DNA (Genentech) and Roche. But I still have to look into the details of it. I also want to short airlines.
SWEET.
I was thinking of buying puts on AXP, but never got around to that trade. so that kind of stings a bit. I'm also thinking of doing a little risk-arb with DNA (Genentech) and Roche. But I still have to look into the details of it. I also want to short airlines.
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
$12990
Caught a falling knife. Wiped out most of the year profit. Never again.
Back to trading regular size.
Long 400 SSO at 58.40
Adding $5000 to pile on to that position.
Back to trading regular size.
Long 400 SSO at 58.40
Adding $5000 to pile on to that position.
Monday, July 14, 2008
$36,116.93
Wow it's been a while since I posted. I got quite lazy over the summer break. But I recently started reading the WSJ again, so hopefully I'll get some ideas soon. Right now, I'm thinking of a paired trade: shorting NYSE and longing NASDAQ. Reason is simply because Nasdaq is gaining more market share than NYSE; there was an article in the Journal today saying that NASDAQ are executing more Big Board trades than NYSE itself!
Also, you can note a jump in my NLV, but that's because I injected $5,000 on June 27th, 2008 into anothr broker, Interactive Brokers, to begin trading forex. Their fx platform is a little bit more developed than ToS. I was long AUD/USD and short USD/CAD. Basically, very bearish on the USD. Reasons include inflation troubles (oil, agricultural and metals) coupled with the Fed's reluctancy to raise rates, Fed's strong support for banks and unwillingness to let them fail ala free markets, real estate troubles, and now extending the credit card debt defaults as well.
I was debating with myself whether I want to include my FX portfolio into the blog, but I guess it's part of my learning experience. It's a major pain in the ass to add the two NLVs together.
Well anyway, like I said I had two positions: 1) long AUD/USD and 2) short USD/CAD. I expected to recieve net interest, kind of like a USD carry trade, but I was disappointed/pissed when I found IB charging my account for interest. Apparently the way they calculate the interest is a net debit interest.
So today, I covered my USD/CAD short because I saw a double bottom forming and my conviction for this trade was wavering. So I covered the trade for a nice $252.50 profit. I kind of regretted the trade later; what I should have done was placed a stop loss order and let the trade run itself. But I tried doing that with the AUD/USD and I had no idea how to do it with IB.
Unable to post chart right now, I'll try to get it up later.
Also, you can note a jump in my NLV, but that's because I injected $5,000 on June 27th, 2008 into anothr broker, Interactive Brokers, to begin trading forex. Their fx platform is a little bit more developed than ToS. I was long AUD/USD and short USD/CAD. Basically, very bearish on the USD. Reasons include inflation troubles (oil, agricultural and metals) coupled with the Fed's reluctancy to raise rates, Fed's strong support for banks and unwillingness to let them fail ala free markets, real estate troubles, and now extending the credit card debt defaults as well.
I was debating with myself whether I want to include my FX portfolio into the blog, but I guess it's part of my learning experience. It's a major pain in the ass to add the two NLVs together.
Well anyway, like I said I had two positions: 1) long AUD/USD and 2) short USD/CAD. I expected to recieve net interest, kind of like a USD carry trade, but I was disappointed/pissed when I found IB charging my account for interest. Apparently the way they calculate the interest is a net debit interest.
So today, I covered my USD/CAD short because I saw a double bottom forming and my conviction for this trade was wavering. So I covered the trade for a nice $252.50 profit. I kind of regretted the trade later; what I should have done was placed a stop loss order and let the trade run itself. But I tried doing that with the AUD/USD and I had no idea how to do it with IB.
Unable to post chart right now, I'll try to get it up later.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)